Amcap Fund Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| RAFEX Fund | USD 41.23 0.21 0.51% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amcap Fund Class on the next trading day is expected to be 41.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.93. Amcap Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amcap Fund stock prices and determine the direction of Amcap Fund Class's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Amcap Fund's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amcap Fund to cross-verify your projections. Amcap |
Most investors in Amcap Fund cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Amcap Fund's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Amcap Fund's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Amcap Fund works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Amcap Fund Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amcap Fund Class on the next trading day is expected to be 41.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amcap Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amcap Fund's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amcap Fund Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Amcap Fund Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amcap Fund's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amcap Fund's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.42 and 42.18, respectively. We have considered Amcap Fund's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amcap Fund mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amcap Fund mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0551 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2988 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0073 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.9297 |
Predictive Modules for Amcap Fund
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amcap Fund Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amcap Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Amcap Fund
For every potential investor in Amcap, whether a beginner or expert, Amcap Fund's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amcap Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amcap. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amcap Fund's price trends.Amcap Fund Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amcap Fund mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amcap Fund could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amcap Fund by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amcap Fund Class Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amcap Fund's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amcap Fund's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Amcap Fund Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amcap Fund mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amcap Fund shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amcap Fund mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Amcap Fund Class entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 41.23 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 41.23 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.1 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.21 |
Amcap Fund Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amcap Fund's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amcap Fund's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amcap mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7056 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7924 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8995 | |||
| Variance | 0.8091 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7401 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6279 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.80) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amcap Fund to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Amcap Fund Class information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amcap Fund's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.