Federated Mdt Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

QKBGX Fund  USD 21.93  0.24  1.11%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Federated Mdt Balanced on the next trading day is expected to be 21.43 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.26  and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.15. Federated Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Federated Mdt stock prices and determine the direction of Federated Mdt Balanced's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Federated Mdt's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federated Mdt to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Federated Mdt cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Federated Mdt's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Federated Mdt's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Federated Mdt price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Federated Mdt Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 17th of May 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Federated Mdt Balanced on the next trading day is expected to be 21.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Federated Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Federated Mdt's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Federated Mdt Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Federated Mdt Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Federated Mdt's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Federated Mdt's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.90 and 21.97, respectively. We have considered Federated Mdt's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.93
21.43
Expected Value
21.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Federated Mdt mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Federated Mdt mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5658
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2604
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0123
SAESum of the absolute errors16.1477
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Federated Mdt Balanced historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Federated Mdt

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated Mdt Balanced. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federated Mdt's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.1621.6922.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.0221.5522.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
20.5321.1721.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Federated Mdt. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Federated Mdt's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Federated Mdt's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Federated Mdt Balanced.

Other Forecasting Options for Federated Mdt

For every potential investor in Federated, whether a beginner or expert, Federated Mdt's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Federated Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Federated. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Federated Mdt's price trends.

Federated Mdt Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Federated Mdt mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Federated Mdt could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Federated Mdt by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Federated Mdt Balanced Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Federated Mdt's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Federated Mdt's current price.

Federated Mdt Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Federated Mdt mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Federated Mdt shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Federated Mdt mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Federated Mdt Balanced entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Federated Mdt Risk Indicators

The analysis of Federated Mdt's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Federated Mdt's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting federated mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Federated Mdt Balanced using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Align your risk with return expectations

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federated Mdt to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Federated Mdt Balanced information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Federated Mdt's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Federated Mdt's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Federated Mdt is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Federated Mdt's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.