Petróleo Brasileiro Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| PBR-A Stock | USD 14.30 0.17 1.17% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Petrleo Brasileiro SA on the next trading day is expected to be 14.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.30. Petróleo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Petróleo Brasileiro stock prices and determine the direction of Petrleo Brasileiro SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Petróleo Brasileiro's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Petróleo Brasileiro's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Petróleo Brasileiro's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Petróleo Brasileiro fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Petróleo Brasileiro to cross-verify your projections. Petróleo |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Petróleo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Petróleo Brasileiro's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Petróleo Brasileiro's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Petróleo Brasileiro stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
No Open InterestPlease note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Petróleo Brasileiro's open interest, investors have to compare it to Petróleo Brasileiro's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Petróleo Brasileiro is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Petróleo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Petróleo Brasileiro cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Petróleo Brasileiro's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Petróleo Brasileiro's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Petróleo Brasileiro - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Petróleo Brasileiro prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Petróleo Brasileiro price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Petróleo Brasileiro. Petróleo Brasileiro Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Petrleo Brasileiro SA on the next trading day is expected to be 14.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Petróleo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Petróleo Brasileiro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Petróleo Brasileiro Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Petróleo Brasileiro | Petróleo Brasileiro Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Petróleo Brasileiro Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Petróleo Brasileiro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Petróleo Brasileiro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.83 and 16.43, respectively. We have considered Petróleo Brasileiro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Petróleo Brasileiro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Petróleo Brasileiro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0541 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2424 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0163 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.3035 |
Predictive Modules for Petróleo Brasileiro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Petróleo Brasileiro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Petróleo Brasileiro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Petróleo Brasileiro
For every potential investor in Petróleo, whether a beginner or expert, Petróleo Brasileiro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Petróleo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Petróleo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Petróleo Brasileiro's price trends.Petróleo Brasileiro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Petróleo Brasileiro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Petróleo Brasileiro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Petróleo Brasileiro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Petróleo Brasileiro Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Petróleo Brasileiro's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Petróleo Brasileiro's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Petróleo Brasileiro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Petróleo Brasileiro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Petróleo Brasileiro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Petróleo Brasileiro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Petrleo Brasileiro SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Petróleo Brasileiro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Petróleo Brasileiro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Petróleo Brasileiro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting petróleo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Variance | 5.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Petróleo Brasileiro to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for Petróleo Stock analysis
When running Petróleo Brasileiro's price analysis, check to measure Petróleo Brasileiro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Petróleo Brasileiro is operating at the current time. Most of Petróleo Brasileiro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Petróleo Brasileiro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Petróleo Brasileiro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Petróleo Brasileiro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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