Prestige Brand Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| PBH Stock | USD 70.00 1.26 1.77% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Prestige Brand Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 71.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.60. Prestige Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Prestige Brand stock prices and determine the direction of Prestige Brand Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Prestige Brand's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Prestige Brand's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Prestige Brand's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Prestige Brand fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prestige Brand to cross-verify your projections. Prestige |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Prestige Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Prestige Brand's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Prestige Brand's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Prestige Brand stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Prestige Brand's open interest, investors have to compare it to Prestige Brand's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Prestige Brand is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Prestige. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Prestige Brand cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Prestige Brand's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Prestige Brand's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Prestige Brand polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Prestige Brand Holdings as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Prestige Brand Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Prestige Brand Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 71.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22, mean absolute percentage error of 1.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Prestige Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Prestige Brand's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Prestige Brand Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Prestige Brand | Prestige Brand Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Prestige Brand Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Prestige Brand's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Prestige Brand's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 69.83 and 73.02, respectively. We have considered Prestige Brand's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Prestige Brand stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Prestige Brand stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7689 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.223 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 74.6019 |
Predictive Modules for Prestige Brand
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Prestige Brand Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Prestige Brand's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Prestige Brand
For every potential investor in Prestige, whether a beginner or expert, Prestige Brand's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Prestige Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Prestige. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Prestige Brand's price trends.Prestige Brand Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Prestige Brand stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Prestige Brand could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Prestige Brand by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Prestige Brand Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Prestige Brand's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Prestige Brand's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Prestige Brand Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Prestige Brand stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Prestige Brand shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Prestige Brand stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Prestige Brand Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Prestige Brand Risk Indicators
The analysis of Prestige Brand's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Prestige Brand's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting prestige stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9999 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8683 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7539 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Prestige Brand Holdings using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
Align your risk with return expectations
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prestige Brand to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Prestige Brand Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Prestige Brand's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Complementary Tools for Prestige Stock analysis
When running Prestige Brand's price analysis, check to measure Prestige Brand's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Prestige Brand is operating at the current time. Most of Prestige Brand's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Prestige Brand's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Prestige Brand's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Prestige Brand to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Bond Analysis Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios. | |
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios |
Is Prestige Brand's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Prestige Brand. If investors know Prestige will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Prestige Brand listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.019 | Earnings Share (1.61) | Revenue Per Share 22.8 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.026 | Return On Assets 0.0616 |
The market value of Prestige Brand Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Prestige that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Prestige Brand's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Prestige Brand's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Prestige Brand's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Prestige Brand's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Prestige Brand's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Prestige Brand is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Prestige Brand's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.