Phibro Animal Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| PAHC Stock | USD 17.16 0.04 0.23% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Phibro Animal Health on the next trading day is expected to be 18.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.73. Phibro Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Phibro Animal stock prices and determine the direction of Phibro Animal Health's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Phibro Animal's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Phibro |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Phibro Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Phibro Animal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Phibro Animal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Phibro Animal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Phibro Animal's open interest, investors have to compare it to Phibro Animal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Phibro Animal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Phibro. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Phibro Animal cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Phibro Animal's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Phibro Animal's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Phibro Animal price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Phibro Animal Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 10th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Phibro Animal Health on the next trading day is expected to be 18.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93, mean absolute percentage error of 1.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Phibro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Phibro Animal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Phibro Animal Stock Forecast Pattern
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Phibro Animal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Phibro Animal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Phibro Animal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.42 and 23.39, respectively. We have considered Phibro Animal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Phibro Animal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Phibro Animal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2773 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.93 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0622 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 56.7321 |
Predictive Modules for Phibro Animal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Phibro Animal Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Phibro Animal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Phibro Animal
For every potential investor in Phibro, whether a beginner or expert, Phibro Animal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Phibro Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Phibro. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Phibro Animal's price trends.Phibro Animal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Phibro Animal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Phibro Animal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Phibro Animal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Phibro Animal Health Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Phibro Animal's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Phibro Animal's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Phibro Animal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Phibro Animal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Phibro Animal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Phibro Animal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Phibro Animal Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Phibro Animal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Phibro Animal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Phibro Animal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting phibro stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.44 | |||
| Variance | 19.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.96 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Phibro Stock
When determining whether Phibro Animal Health offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Phibro Animal's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Phibro Animal Health Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Phibro Animal Health Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Phibro Animal to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Phibro Animal. If investors know Phibro will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Phibro Animal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | Dividend Share 0.48 | Earnings Share 0.33 | Revenue Per Share 24.678 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.071 |
The market value of Phibro Animal Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Phibro that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Phibro Animal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Phibro Animal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Phibro Animal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Phibro Animal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Phibro Animal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Phibro Animal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Phibro Animal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.