OPAL Fuels Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| OPAL Stock | USD 4.43 0.11 2.42% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of OPAL Fuels on the next trading day is expected to be 4.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.24. OPAL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although OPAL Fuels' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of OPAL Fuels' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of OPAL Fuels fundamentals over time.
OPAL |
Most investors in OPAL Fuels cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the OPAL Fuels' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets OPAL Fuels' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for OPAL Fuels is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of OPAL Fuels value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. OPAL Fuels Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of OPAL Fuels on the next trading day is expected to be 4.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OPAL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OPAL Fuels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
OPAL Fuels Stock Forecast Pattern
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OPAL Fuels Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting OPAL Fuels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OPAL Fuels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.33 and 6.25, respectively. We have considered OPAL Fuels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OPAL Fuels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OPAL Fuels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0253 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0684 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0142 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.2396 |
Predictive Modules for OPAL Fuels
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OPAL Fuels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of OPAL Fuels' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for OPAL Fuels
For every potential investor in OPAL, whether a beginner or expert, OPAL Fuels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OPAL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OPAL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OPAL Fuels' price trends.OPAL Fuels Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OPAL Fuels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OPAL Fuels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OPAL Fuels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
OPAL Fuels Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of OPAL Fuels' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of OPAL Fuels' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
OPAL Fuels Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OPAL Fuels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OPAL Fuels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OPAL Fuels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OPAL Fuels entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2260.39 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.47 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.46 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.11) |
OPAL Fuels Risk Indicators
The analysis of OPAL Fuels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OPAL Fuels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting opal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Variance | 3.82 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as OPAL Fuels using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in OPAL Stock
When determining whether OPAL Fuels is a strong investment it is important to analyze OPAL Fuels' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact OPAL Fuels' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding OPAL Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OPAL Fuels to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy OPAL Stock please use our How to buy in OPAL Stock guide.You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Electric Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OPAL Fuels. If investors know OPAL will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about OPAL Fuels listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Earnings Share 0.74 | Revenue Per Share 10.245 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.512 | Return On Assets 0.0112 |
The market value of OPAL Fuels is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of OPAL that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of OPAL Fuels' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is OPAL Fuels' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because OPAL Fuels' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect OPAL Fuels' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between OPAL Fuels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if OPAL Fuels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OPAL Fuels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.