Universal Display Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| OLED Stock | USD 173.67 1.79 1.02% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Universal Display on the next trading day is expected to be 164.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 257.79. Universal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Universal Display stock prices and determine the direction of Universal Display's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Universal Display's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Universal Display's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Universal Display's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Universal Display fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal Display to cross-verify your projections. Universal |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Universal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Universal Display's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Universal Display's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Universal Display stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Universal Display's open interest, investors have to compare it to Universal Display's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Universal Display is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Universal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Universal Display cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Universal Display's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Universal Display's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Universal Display is based on a synthetically constructed Universal Displaydaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Universal Display 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 17th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Universal Display on the next trading day is expected to be 164.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.29, mean absolute percentage error of 68.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 257.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Universal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Universal Display's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Universal Display Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Universal Display | Universal Display Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Universal Display Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Universal Display's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Universal Display's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 162.57 and 166.99, respectively. We have considered Universal Display's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Universal Display stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Universal Display stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 85.578 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.8868 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.2876 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0381 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 257.792 |
Predictive Modules for Universal Display
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Display. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Universal Display's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Universal Display
For every potential investor in Universal, whether a beginner or expert, Universal Display's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Universal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Universal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Universal Display's price trends.Universal Display Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Universal Display stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Universal Display could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Universal Display by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Universal Display Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Universal Display's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Universal Display's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Universal Display Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Universal Display stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Universal Display shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Universal Display stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Universal Display entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2545.33 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.64) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 174.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 174.29 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.82) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.79) |
Universal Display Risk Indicators
The analysis of Universal Display's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Universal Display's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting universal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Variance | 5.03 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal Display to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Universal Stock refer to our How to Trade Universal Stock guide.Note that the Universal Display information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Universal Display's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Complementary Tools for Universal Stock analysis
When running Universal Display's price analysis, check to measure Universal Display's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Universal Display is operating at the current time. Most of Universal Display's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Universal Display's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Universal Display's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Universal Display to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Universal Display's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Universal Display. If investors know Universal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Universal Display listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.434 | Dividend Share 1.45 | Earnings Share 4.6 | Revenue Per Share 12.849 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.267 |
The market value of Universal Display is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Universal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Universal Display's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Universal Display's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Universal Display's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Universal Display's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Universal Display's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Universal Display is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Universal Display's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.