Owens Corning Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| OC Stock | USD 176.38 2.66 1.53% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Owens Corning on the next trading day is expected to be 176.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.35. Owens Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Owens Corning stock prices and determine the direction of Owens Corning's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Owens Corning's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Owens Corning to cross-verify your projections. Owens |
Most investors in Owens Corning cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Owens Corning's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Owens Corning's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Owens Corning simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Owens Corning are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Owens Corning prices get older. Owens Corning Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Owens Corning on the next trading day is expected to be 176.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.06, mean absolute percentage error of 6.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Owens Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Owens Corning's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Owens Corning Stock Forecast Pattern
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Owens Corning Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Owens Corning's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Owens Corning's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 174.82 and 177.84, respectively. We have considered Owens Corning's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Owens Corning stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Owens Corning stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1162 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5955 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0558 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 123.3503 |
Predictive Modules for Owens Corning
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Owens Corning. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Owens Corning's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Owens Corning
For every potential investor in Owens, whether a beginner or expert, Owens Corning's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Owens Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Owens. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Owens Corning's price trends.View Owens Corning Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Owens Corning Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Owens Corning's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Owens Corning's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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Owens Corning Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Owens Corning stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Owens Corning shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Owens Corning stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Owens Corning entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Owens Corning Risk Indicators
The analysis of Owens Corning's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Owens Corning's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting owens stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Variance | 2.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Owens Corning to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Owens Stock refer to our How to Trade Owens Stock guide.Note that the Owens Corning information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Owens Corning's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
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When running Owens Corning's price analysis, check to measure Owens Corning's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Owens Corning is operating at the current time. Most of Owens Corning's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Owens Corning's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Owens Corning's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Owens Corning to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Owens Corning's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Owens Corning. If investors know Owens will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Owens Corning listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Owens Corning is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Owens that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Owens Corning's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Owens Corning's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Owens Corning's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Owens Corning's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Owens Corning's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Owens Corning is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Owens Corning's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.