NXP Semiconductors Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| NXPI Stock | USD 261.73 0.93 0.36% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NXP Semiconductors NV on the next trading day is expected to be 262.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 243.67. NXP Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NXP Semiconductors stock prices and determine the direction of NXP Semiconductors NV's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NXP Semiconductors' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although NXP Semiconductors' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of NXP Semiconductors' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of NXP Semiconductors fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NXP Semiconductors to cross-verify your projections. NXP |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-10 NXP Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast NXP Semiconductors' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in NXP Semiconductors' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for NXP Semiconductors stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current NXP Semiconductors' open interest, investors have to compare it to NXP Semiconductors' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of NXP Semiconductors is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in NXP. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in NXP Semiconductors cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the NXP Semiconductors' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets NXP Semiconductors' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for NXP Semiconductors works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. NXP Semiconductors Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NXP Semiconductors NV on the next trading day is expected to be 262.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.13, mean absolute percentage error of 24.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 243.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NXP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NXP Semiconductors' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NXP Semiconductors Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NXP Semiconductors | NXP Semiconductors Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
NXP Semiconductors Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NXP Semiconductors' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NXP Semiconductors' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 260.25 and 264.25, respectively. We have considered NXP Semiconductors' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NXP Semiconductors stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NXP Semiconductors stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0412 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.13 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0171 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 243.67 |
Predictive Modules for NXP Semiconductors
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NXP Semiconductors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NXP Semiconductors' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for NXP Semiconductors
For every potential investor in NXP, whether a beginner or expert, NXP Semiconductors' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NXP Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NXP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NXP Semiconductors' price trends.NXP Semiconductors Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NXP Semiconductors stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NXP Semiconductors could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NXP Semiconductors by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NXP Semiconductors Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NXP Semiconductors' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NXP Semiconductors' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NXP Semiconductors Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NXP Semiconductors stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NXP Semiconductors shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NXP Semiconductors stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NXP Semiconductors NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NXP Semiconductors Risk Indicators
The analysis of NXP Semiconductors' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NXP Semiconductors' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nxp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Variance | 4.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
NXP Semiconductors Investors Sentiment
The influence of NXP Semiconductors' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in NXP. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to NXP Semiconductors' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NXP. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NXP can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NXP Semiconductors NV. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
NXP Semiconductors' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for NXP Semiconductors' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average NXP Semiconductors' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on NXP Semiconductors.
NXP Semiconductors Implied Volatility | 64.08 |
NXP Semiconductors' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NXP Semiconductors NV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NXP Semiconductors' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NXP Semiconductors stock will not fluctuate a lot when NXP Semiconductors' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NXP Semiconductors in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NXP Semiconductors' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NXP Semiconductors options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NXP Semiconductors to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Complementary Tools for NXP Stock analysis
When running NXP Semiconductors' price analysis, check to measure NXP Semiconductors' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NXP Semiconductors is operating at the current time. Most of NXP Semiconductors' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NXP Semiconductors' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NXP Semiconductors' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NXP Semiconductors to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NXP Semiconductors' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NXP Semiconductors. If investors know NXP will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NXP Semiconductors listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.051 | Dividend Share 4.056 | Earnings Share 10.83 | Revenue Per Share 51.551 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.002 |
The market value of NXP Semiconductors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NXP that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NXP Semiconductors' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NXP Semiconductors' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NXP Semiconductors' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NXP Semiconductors' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NXP Semiconductors' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NXP Semiconductors is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NXP Semiconductors' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.