City Retail Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NIRO Stock | IDR 141.00 1.00 0.71% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of City Retail Developments on the next trading day is expected to be 141.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.59. City Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast City Retail stock prices and determine the direction of City Retail Developments's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of City Retail's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of City Retail to cross-verify your projections. City |
Most investors in City Retail cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the City Retail's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets City Retail's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for City Retail is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of City Retail Developments value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. City Retail Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of City Retail Developments on the next trading day is expected to be 141.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict City Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that City Retail's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
City Retail Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest City Retail | City Retail Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
City Retail Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting City Retail's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. City Retail's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 140.87 and 141.31, respectively. We have considered City Retail's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of City Retail stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent City Retail stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.937 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.108 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 8.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.5902 |
Predictive Modules for City Retail
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as City Retail Developments. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of City Retail's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for City Retail
For every potential investor in City, whether a beginner or expert, City Retail's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. City Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in City. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying City Retail's price trends.City Retail Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with City Retail stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of City Retail could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing City Retail by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
City Retail Developments Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of City Retail's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of City Retail's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
City Retail Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how City Retail stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading City Retail shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying City Retail stock market strength indicators, traders can identify City Retail Developments entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
City Retail Risk Indicators
The analysis of City Retail's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in City Retail's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting city stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0639 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1972 | |||
| Variance | 0.0389 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of City Retail to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Complementary Tools for City Stock analysis
When running City Retail's price analysis, check to measure City Retail's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy City Retail is operating at the current time. Most of City Retail's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of City Retail's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move City Retail's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of City Retail to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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