Allianzgi Convertible Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NCV Fund | USD 3.18 0.06 1.92% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allianzgi Convertible Income on the next trading day is expected to be 3.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.47. Allianzgi Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Allianzgi Convertible stock prices and determine the direction of Allianzgi Convertible Income's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Allianzgi Convertible's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allianzgi Convertible to cross-verify your projections. Allianzgi |
Most investors in Allianzgi Convertible cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Allianzgi Convertible's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Allianzgi Convertible's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Allianzgi Convertible is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Allianzgi Convertible Income value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Allianzgi Convertible Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allianzgi Convertible Income on the next trading day is expected to be 3.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allianzgi Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allianzgi Convertible's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Allianzgi Convertible Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Allianzgi Convertible | Allianzgi Convertible Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Allianzgi Convertible Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Allianzgi Convertible's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allianzgi Convertible's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.33 and 4.20, respectively. We have considered Allianzgi Convertible's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allianzgi Convertible fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allianzgi Convertible fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.1608 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0241 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0076 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.4686 |
Predictive Modules for Allianzgi Convertible
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allianzgi Convertible. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allianzgi Convertible's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Allianzgi Convertible
For every potential investor in Allianzgi, whether a beginner or expert, Allianzgi Convertible's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allianzgi Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allianzgi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allianzgi Convertible's price trends.View Allianzgi Convertible Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allianzgi Convertible Technical and Predictive Analytics
The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allianzgi Convertible's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allianzgi Convertible's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Allianzgi Convertible Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allianzgi Convertible fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allianzgi Convertible shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allianzgi Convertible fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Allianzgi Convertible Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Allianzgi Convertible Risk Indicators
The analysis of Allianzgi Convertible's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allianzgi Convertible's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allianzgi fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6626 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9345 | |||
| Variance | 0.8733 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allianzgi Convertible to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Allianzgi Convertible information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Allianzgi Convertible's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.