NioCorp Developments Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| NB Stock | 2.36 0.19 7.45% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NioCorp Developments Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 2.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.43. NioCorp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NioCorp Developments stock prices and determine the direction of NioCorp Developments Ltd's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NioCorp Developments' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although NioCorp Developments' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of NioCorp Developments' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of NioCorp Developments fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NioCorp Developments to cross-verify your projections. NioCorp |
Most investors in NioCorp Developments cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the NioCorp Developments' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets NioCorp Developments' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for NioCorp Developments - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When NioCorp Developments prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in NioCorp Developments price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of NioCorp Developments. NioCorp Developments Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NioCorp Developments Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 2.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NioCorp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NioCorp Developments' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NioCorp Developments Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NioCorp Developments | NioCorp Developments Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
NioCorp Developments Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NioCorp Developments' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NioCorp Developments' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 8.08, respectively. We have considered NioCorp Developments' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NioCorp Developments stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NioCorp Developments stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0139 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1259 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0479 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.4265 |
Predictive Modules for NioCorp Developments
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NioCorp Developments. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NioCorp Developments' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for NioCorp Developments
For every potential investor in NioCorp, whether a beginner or expert, NioCorp Developments' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NioCorp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NioCorp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NioCorp Developments' price trends.NioCorp Developments Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NioCorp Developments stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NioCorp Developments could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NioCorp Developments by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NioCorp Developments Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NioCorp Developments' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NioCorp Developments' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NioCorp Developments Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NioCorp Developments stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NioCorp Developments shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NioCorp Developments stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NioCorp Developments Ltd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NioCorp Developments Risk Indicators
The analysis of NioCorp Developments' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NioCorp Developments' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting niocorp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.75 | |||
| Variance | 33.09 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NioCorp Developments to cross-verify your projections. Note that the NioCorp Developments information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other NioCorp Developments' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Complementary Tools for NioCorp Stock analysis
When running NioCorp Developments' price analysis, check to measure NioCorp Developments' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NioCorp Developments is operating at the current time. Most of NioCorp Developments' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NioCorp Developments' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NioCorp Developments' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NioCorp Developments to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NioCorp Developments' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NioCorp Developments. If investors know NioCorp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NioCorp Developments listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.37) | Return On Assets (0.46) | Return On Equity (7.72) |
The market value of NioCorp Developments is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NioCorp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NioCorp Developments' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NioCorp Developments' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NioCorp Developments' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NioCorp Developments' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NioCorp Developments' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NioCorp Developments is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NioCorp Developments' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.