Natural Alternatives Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NAII Stock | USD 6.56 0.04 0.61% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Natural Alternatives International on the next trading day is expected to be 6.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.87. Natural Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Natural Alternatives stock prices and determine the direction of Natural Alternatives International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Natural Alternatives' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Natural Alternatives' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Natural Alternatives' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Natural Alternatives fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Natural Alternatives to cross-verify your projections. Natural |
Most investors in Natural Alternatives cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Natural Alternatives' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Natural Alternatives' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Natural Alternatives simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Natural Alternatives International are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Natural Alternatives prices get older. Natural Alternatives Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Natural Alternatives International on the next trading day is expected to be 6.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Natural Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Natural Alternatives' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Natural Alternatives Stock Forecast Pattern
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Natural Alternatives Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Natural Alternatives' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Natural Alternatives' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.46 and 8.66, respectively. We have considered Natural Alternatives' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Natural Alternatives stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Natural Alternatives stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.2636 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0085 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0812 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0127 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.87 |
Predictive Modules for Natural Alternatives
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natural Alternatives. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natural Alternatives' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Natural Alternatives
For every potential investor in Natural, whether a beginner or expert, Natural Alternatives' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Natural Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Natural. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Natural Alternatives' price trends.Natural Alternatives Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Natural Alternatives stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Natural Alternatives could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Natural Alternatives by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Natural Alternatives Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Natural Alternatives' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Natural Alternatives' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Natural Alternatives Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Natural Alternatives stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Natural Alternatives shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Natural Alternatives stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Natural Alternatives International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Natural Alternatives Risk Indicators
The analysis of Natural Alternatives' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Natural Alternatives' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting natural stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Variance | 4.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.87 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.66) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Natural Alternatives offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Natural Alternatives' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Natural Alternatives International Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Natural Alternatives International Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Natural Alternatives to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Natural Stock analysis
When running Natural Alternatives' price analysis, check to measure Natural Alternatives' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Alternatives is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Alternatives' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Alternatives' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Alternatives' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Alternatives to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Natural Alternatives' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Alternatives. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Alternatives listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.741 | Earnings Share (0.70) | Revenue Per Share 21.871 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.265 | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Natural Alternatives is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Alternatives' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Alternatives' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Alternatives' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Alternatives' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Alternatives' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Natural Alternatives is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Alternatives' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.