Mytilineos Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MYTIL Stock | EUR 36.70 0.08 0.22% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mytilineos SA on the next trading day is expected to be 36.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.14. Mytilineos Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mytilineos stock prices and determine the direction of Mytilineos SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mytilineos' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mytilineos to cross-verify your projections. Mytilineos |
Most investors in Mytilineos cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Mytilineos' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Mytilineos' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Mytilineos - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Mytilineos prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Mytilineos price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Mytilineos SA. Mytilineos Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mytilineos SA on the next trading day is expected to be 36.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mytilineos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mytilineos' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mytilineos Stock Forecast Pattern
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Mytilineos Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mytilineos' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mytilineos' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.13 and 38.35, respectively. We have considered Mytilineos' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mytilineos stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mytilineos stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0283 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4023 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.011 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.14 |
Predictive Modules for Mytilineos
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mytilineos SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mytilineos' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Mytilineos
For every potential investor in Mytilineos, whether a beginner or expert, Mytilineos' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mytilineos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mytilineos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mytilineos' price trends.Mytilineos Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mytilineos stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mytilineos could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mytilineos by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mytilineos SA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mytilineos' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mytilineos' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mytilineos Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mytilineos stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mytilineos shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mytilineos stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mytilineos SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2587.39 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.16 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 36.87 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 36.81 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.13) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.08 |
Mytilineos Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mytilineos' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mytilineos' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mytilineos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Variance | 2.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Mytilineos
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Mytilineos position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Mytilineos will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Mytilineos Stock
Moving against Mytilineos Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Mytilineos could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Mytilineos when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Mytilineos - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Mytilineos SA to buy it.
The correlation of Mytilineos is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Mytilineos moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Mytilineos SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Mytilineos can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Mytilineos Stock
Mytilineos financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mytilineos Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mytilineos with respect to the benefits of owning Mytilineos security.