Motorola Solutions Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MSI Stock | USD 367.80 1.39 0.38% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Motorola Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 367.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 161.22. Motorola Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Motorola Solutions stock prices and determine the direction of Motorola Solutions's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Motorola Solutions' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Motorola Solutions to cross-verify your projections. Motorola |
Most investors in Motorola Solutions cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Motorola Solutions' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Motorola Solutions' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Motorola Solutions - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Motorola Solutions prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Motorola Solutions price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Motorola Solutions. Motorola Solutions Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Motorola Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 367.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.73, mean absolute percentage error of 15.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 161.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Motorola Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Motorola Solutions' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Motorola Solutions Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Motorola Solutions | Motorola Solutions Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Motorola Solutions Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Motorola Solutions' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Motorola Solutions' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 366.79 and 369.04, respectively. We have considered Motorola Solutions' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Motorola Solutions stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Motorola Solutions stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.64 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.7326 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 161.222 |
Predictive Modules for Motorola Solutions
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Motorola Solutions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Motorola Solutions' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Motorola Solutions
For every potential investor in Motorola, whether a beginner or expert, Motorola Solutions' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Motorola Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Motorola. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Motorola Solutions' price trends.Motorola Solutions Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Motorola Solutions stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Motorola Solutions could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Motorola Solutions by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Motorola Solutions Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Motorola Solutions' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Motorola Solutions' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Motorola Solutions Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Motorola Solutions stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Motorola Solutions shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Motorola Solutions stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Motorola Solutions entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Motorola Solutions Risk Indicators
The analysis of Motorola Solutions' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Motorola Solutions' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting motorola stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7786 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6734 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Variance | 1.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9476 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4535 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Motorola Solutions offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Motorola Solutions' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Motorola Solutions Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Motorola Solutions Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Motorola Solutions to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Motorola Stock please use our How to Invest in Motorola Solutions guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Complementary Tools for Motorola Stock analysis
When running Motorola Solutions' price analysis, check to measure Motorola Solutions' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Motorola Solutions is operating at the current time. Most of Motorola Solutions' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Motorola Solutions' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Motorola Solutions' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Motorola Solutions to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Competition Analyzer Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities | |
| Funds Screener Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities | |
| Sync Your Broker Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors. | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals |
Is Motorola Solutions' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Motorola Solutions. If investors know Motorola will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Motorola Solutions listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Motorola Solutions is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Motorola that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Motorola Solutions' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Motorola Solutions' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Motorola Solutions' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Motorola Solutions' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Motorola Solutions' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Motorola Solutions is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Motorola Solutions' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.