Microsoft Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MSF Stock | EUR 393.05 1.65 0.42% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Microsoft on the next trading day is expected to be 393.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 240.99. Microsoft Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Microsoft stock prices and determine the direction of Microsoft's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Microsoft's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microsoft to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Microsoft Stock refer to our How to Trade Microsoft Stock guide.Microsoft |
Most investors in Microsoft cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Microsoft's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Microsoft's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Microsoft works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Microsoft Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Microsoft on the next trading day is expected to be 393.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.02, mean absolute percentage error of 27.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 240.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Microsoft Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Microsoft's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Microsoft Stock Forecast Pattern
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Microsoft Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Microsoft's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Microsoft's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 392.19 and 394.90, respectively. We have considered Microsoft's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Microsoft stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Microsoft stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5743 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.0165 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0105 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 240.9911 |
Predictive Modules for Microsoft
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microsoft. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microsoft's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Microsoft
For every potential investor in Microsoft, whether a beginner or expert, Microsoft's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Microsoft Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Microsoft. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Microsoft's price trends.Microsoft Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Microsoft stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Microsoft could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Microsoft by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Microsoft Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Microsoft's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Microsoft's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Microsoft Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Microsoft stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Microsoft shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Microsoft stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Microsoft entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 393.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 393.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.82) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.65) |
Microsoft Risk Indicators
The analysis of Microsoft's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Microsoft's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microsoft stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9303 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Variance | 1.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Microsoft is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Microsoft Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Microsoft Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Microsoft Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microsoft to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Microsoft Stock refer to our How to Trade Microsoft Stock guide.Note that the Microsoft information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microsoft's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Microsoft Stock analysis
When running Microsoft's price analysis, check to measure Microsoft's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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