MP Materials Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MP Stock | USD 18.25 0.17 0.94% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MP Materials Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.63. MP Materials Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MP Materials stock prices and determine the direction of MP Materials Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MP Materials' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although MP Materials' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of MP Materials' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of MP Materials fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MP Materials to cross-verify your projections. MP Materials |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 MP Materials Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast MP Materials' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in MP Materials' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for MP Materials stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current MP Materials' open interest, investors have to compare it to MP Materials' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of MP Materials is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in MP Materials. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in MP Materials cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the MP Materials' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets MP Materials' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for MP Materials is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of MP Materials Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. MP Materials Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MP Materials Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MP Materials Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MP Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MP Materials Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MP Materials | MP Materials Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MP Materials Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MP Materials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MP Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.99 and 24.33, respectively. We have considered MP Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MP Materials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MP Materials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.088 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.453 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0287 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.6322 |
Predictive Modules for MP Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MP Materials Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MP Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for MP Materials
For every potential investor in MP Materials, whether a beginner or expert, MP Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MP Materials Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MP Materials. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MP Materials' price trends.MP Materials Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MP Materials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MP Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MP Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MP Materials Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MP Materials' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MP Materials' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MP Materials Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MP Materials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MP Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MP Materials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MP Materials Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MP Materials Risk Indicators
The analysis of MP Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MP Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mp materials stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.66 | |||
| Variance | 13.37 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.13 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MP Materials to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Complementary Tools for MP Materials Stock analysis
When running MP Materials' price analysis, check to measure MP Materials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MP Materials is operating at the current time. Most of MP Materials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MP Materials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MP Materials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MP Materials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital | |
| Price Exposure Probability Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges |
Is MP Materials' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MP Materials. If investors know MP Materials will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MP Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.56) | Earnings Share (0.14) | Revenue Per Share 1.169 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.49) | Return On Assets (0.02) |
The market value of MP Materials Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MP Materials that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MP Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MP Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MP Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MP Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MP Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MP Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MP Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.