Merit Medical Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MMSI Stock | USD 82.40 1.57 1.94% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Merit Medical Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 82.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.80. Merit Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Merit Medical stock prices and determine the direction of Merit Medical Systems's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Merit Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Merit Medical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Merit Medical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Merit Medical fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merit Medical to cross-verify your projections. Merit |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Merit Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Merit Medical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Merit Medical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Merit Medical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Merit Medical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Merit Medical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Merit Medical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Merit. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Merit Medical cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Merit Medical's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Merit Medical's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Merit Medical - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Merit Medical prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Merit Medical price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Merit Medical Systems. Merit Medical Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Merit Medical Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 82.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 1.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merit Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merit Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Merit Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Merit Medical | Merit Medical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Merit Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Merit Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merit Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 81.43 and 84.27, respectively. We have considered Merit Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merit Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merit Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2239 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.861 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 50.7985 |
Predictive Modules for Merit Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merit Medical Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merit Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Merit Medical
For every potential investor in Merit, whether a beginner or expert, Merit Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merit Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merit Medical's price trends.Merit Medical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merit Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merit Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merit Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Merit Medical Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merit Medical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merit Medical's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Merit Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merit Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merit Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merit Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merit Medical Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 82.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 82.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.79 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.57 |
Merit Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Merit Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merit Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merit stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Variance | 1.99 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.03 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Merit Medical Investors Sentiment
The influence of Merit Medical's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Merit. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Merit Medical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Merit. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Merit can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Merit Medical Systems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Merit Medical's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Merit Medical's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Merit Medical's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Merit Medical.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Merit Medical in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Merit Medical's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Merit Medical options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merit Medical to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for Merit Stock analysis
When running Merit Medical's price analysis, check to measure Merit Medical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merit Medical is operating at the current time. Most of Merit Medical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merit Medical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merit Medical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merit Medical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Merit Medical's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merit Medical. If investors know Merit will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merit Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.333 | Earnings Share 1.74 | Revenue Per Share 22.224 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.087 | Return On Assets 0.0425 |
The market value of Merit Medical Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merit that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merit Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merit Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merit Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merit Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merit Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Merit Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merit Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.