Direxion Daily Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MIDU Etf | USD 52.20 0.11 0.21% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Direxion Daily Mid on the next trading day is expected to be 52.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.82. Direxion Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Direxion Daily stock prices and determine the direction of Direxion Daily Mid's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Direxion Daily's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Direxion Daily to cross-verify your projections. Direxion |
Most investors in Direxion Daily cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, etf markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Direxion Daily's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Direxion Daily's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Direxion Daily simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Direxion Daily Mid are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Direxion Daily Mid prices get older. Direxion Daily Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Direxion Daily Mid on the next trading day is expected to be 52.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00, mean absolute percentage error of 1.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Direxion Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Direxion Daily's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Direxion Daily Etf Forecast Pattern
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Direxion Daily Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Direxion Daily's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Direxion Daily's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.62 and 54.78, respectively. We have considered Direxion Daily's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Direxion Daily etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Direxion Daily etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7254 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0893 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.997 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.02 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.82 |
Predictive Modules for Direxion Daily
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Direxion Daily Mid. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Direxion Daily's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Direxion Daily
For every potential investor in Direxion, whether a beginner or expert, Direxion Daily's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Direxion Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Direxion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Direxion Daily's price trends.Direxion Daily Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Direxion Daily etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Direxion Daily could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Direxion Daily by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Direxion Daily Mid Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Direxion Daily's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Direxion Daily's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Direxion Daily Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Direxion Daily etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Direxion Daily shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Direxion Daily etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Direxion Daily Mid entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1257.07 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.07) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 52.87 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 52.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.72) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.86 |
Direxion Daily Risk Indicators
The analysis of Direxion Daily's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Direxion Daily's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting direxion etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Variance | 6.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.75 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Direxion Daily to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Direxion Daily Mid information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Direxion Daily's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
The market value of Direxion Daily Mid is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Direxion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Direxion Daily's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Direxion Daily's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Direxion Daily's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Direxion Daily's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Direxion Daily's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Direxion Daily is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Direxion Daily's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.