MGM Resorts Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MGM Stock | USD 41.05 0.02 0.05% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MGM Resorts International on the next trading day is expected to be 41.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.03. MGM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MGM Resorts stock prices and determine the direction of MGM Resorts International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MGM Resorts' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although MGM Resorts' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of MGM Resorts' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of MGM Resorts fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MGM Resorts to cross-verify your projections. MGM |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-24 MGM Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast MGM Resorts' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in MGM Resorts' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for MGM Resorts stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current MGM Resorts' open interest, investors have to compare it to MGM Resorts' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of MGM Resorts is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in MGM. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in MGM Resorts cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the MGM Resorts' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets MGM Resorts' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for MGM Resorts - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When MGM Resorts prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in MGM Resorts price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of MGM Resorts International. MGM Resorts Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MGM Resorts International on the next trading day is expected to be 41.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MGM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MGM Resorts' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MGM Resorts Stock Forecast Pattern
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MGM Resorts Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MGM Resorts' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MGM Resorts' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.37 and 42.66, respectively. We have considered MGM Resorts' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MGM Resorts stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MGM Resorts stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0995 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5089 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.0277 |
Predictive Modules for MGM Resorts
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MGM Resorts International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MGM Resorts' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for MGM Resorts
For every potential investor in MGM, whether a beginner or expert, MGM Resorts' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MGM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MGM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MGM Resorts' price trends.MGM Resorts Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MGM Resorts stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MGM Resorts could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MGM Resorts by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MGM Resorts International Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MGM Resorts' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MGM Resorts' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MGM Resorts Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MGM Resorts stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MGM Resorts shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MGM Resorts stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MGM Resorts International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MGM Resorts Risk Indicators
The analysis of MGM Resorts' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MGM Resorts' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mgm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.65 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MGM Resorts to cross-verify your projections. Note that the MGM Resorts International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other MGM Resorts' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Complementary Tools for MGM Stock analysis
When running MGM Resorts' price analysis, check to measure MGM Resorts' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MGM Resorts is operating at the current time. Most of MGM Resorts' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MGM Resorts' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MGM Resorts' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MGM Resorts to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is MGM Resorts' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MGM Resorts. If investors know MGM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MGM Resorts listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | Earnings Share 2.62 | Revenue Per Share 48.685 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.132 | Return On Assets 0.0244 |
The market value of MGM Resorts International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MGM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MGM Resorts' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MGM Resorts' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MGM Resorts' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MGM Resorts' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MGM Resorts' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MGM Resorts is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MGM Resorts' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.