MAGNA INTL Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for MAGNA INTL - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When MAGNA INTL prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in MAGNA INTL price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of MAGNA INTL.

MAGNA INTL Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MAGNA INTL on the next trading day is expected to be 43.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.35.

MAGNA INTL Stock Forecast Pattern

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MAGNA INTL Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MAGNA INTL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MAGNA INTL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past MAGNA INTL observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older MAGNA INTL observations.

Predictive Modules for MAGNA INTL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MAGNA INTL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 42.65 44.01 45.37 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 36.81 38.17 48.41 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 42.15 44.33 46.50 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as MAGNA INTL. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against MAGNA INTL's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, MAGNA INTL's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in MAGNA INTL.

Other Forecasting Options for MAGNA INTL

For every potential investor in MAGNA, whether a beginner or expert, MAGNA INTL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MAGNA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MAGNA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MAGNA INTL's price trends.

MAGNA INTL Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

MAGNA INTL Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MAGNA INTL's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MAGNA INTL's current price.

MAGNA INTL Market Strength Events

MAGNA INTL Risk Indicators

Pair Trading with MAGNA INTL

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if MAGNA INTL position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in MAGNA INTL will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Complementary Tools for MAGNA Stock analysis

Altman Z Score Details

Intrinsic Valuation Details

Financial Analysis Details

Buy or Sell Advice Details

Technical Analysis Details

Please note, there is a significant difference between MAGNA INTL's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MAGNA INTL is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MAGNA INTL's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.