Merko Gida Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| MERKO Stock | TRY 12.21 0.22 1.77% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Merko Gida Sanayi on the next trading day is expected to be 11.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.26. Merko Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Merko Gida stock prices and determine the direction of Merko Gida Sanayi's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Merko Gida's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merko Gida to cross-verify your projections. Merko |
Most investors in Merko Gida cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Merko Gida's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Merko Gida's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Merko Gida polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Merko Gida Sanayi as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Merko Gida Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Merko Gida Sanayi on the next trading day is expected to be 11.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merko Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merko Gida's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Merko Gida Stock Forecast Pattern
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Merko Gida Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Merko Gida's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merko Gida's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.63 and 15.01, respectively. We have considered Merko Gida's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merko Gida stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merko Gida stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7513 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4142 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0294 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.2644 |
Predictive Modules for Merko Gida
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merko Gida Sanayi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merko Gida's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Merko Gida
For every potential investor in Merko, whether a beginner or expert, Merko Gida's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merko Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merko. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merko Gida's price trends.Merko Gida Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merko Gida stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merko Gida could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merko Gida by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Merko Gida Sanayi Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merko Gida's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merko Gida's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Merko Gida Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merko Gida stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merko Gida shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merko Gida stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merko Gida Sanayi entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Merko Gida Risk Indicators
The analysis of Merko Gida's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merko Gida's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merko stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.2 | |||
| Variance | 10.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Merko Gida
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Merko Gida position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Merko Gida will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Merko Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Merko Gida could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Merko Gida when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Merko Gida - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Merko Gida Sanayi to buy it.
The correlation of Merko Gida is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Merko Gida moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Merko Gida Sanayi moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Merko Gida can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Merko Stock
Merko Gida financial ratios help investors to determine whether Merko Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Merko with respect to the benefits of owning Merko Gida security.