MEG Energy Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| MEG Stock | CAD 28.13 1.46 4.93% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of MEG Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 28.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.50. MEG Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MEG Energy stock prices and determine the direction of MEG Energy Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MEG Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although MEG Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of MEG Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of MEG Energy fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MEG Energy to cross-verify your projections. MEG |
Most investors in MEG Energy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the MEG Energy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets MEG Energy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for MEG Energy Corp is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. MEG Energy 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of MEG Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 28.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MEG Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MEG Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MEG Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
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MEG Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MEG Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MEG Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.26 and 30.48, respectively. We have considered MEG Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MEG Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MEG Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.9761 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0162 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5948 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0193 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.5 |
Predictive Modules for MEG Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MEG Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MEG Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for MEG Energy
For every potential investor in MEG, whether a beginner or expert, MEG Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MEG Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MEG. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MEG Energy's price trends.MEG Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MEG Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MEG Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MEG Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MEG Energy Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MEG Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MEG Energy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MEG Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MEG Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MEG Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MEG Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MEG Energy Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 193652.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.89) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 28.73 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 28.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.33) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.46) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.78 |
MEG Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of MEG Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MEG Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting meg stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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MEG Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether MEG Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in MEG with respect to the benefits of owning MEG Energy security.