Makina Takim Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MAKTK Stock | TRY 6.91 0.11 1.62% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Makina Takim Endustrisi on the next trading day is expected to be 6.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.34. Makina Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Makina Takim stock prices and determine the direction of Makina Takim Endustrisi's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Makina Takim's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Makina Takim to cross-verify your projections. Makina |
Most investors in Makina Takim cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Makina Takim's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Makina Takim's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Makina Takim - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Makina Takim prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Makina Takim price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Makina Takim Endustrisi. Makina Takim Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Makina Takim Endustrisi on the next trading day is expected to be 6.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Makina Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Makina Takim's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Makina Takim Stock Forecast Pattern
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Makina Takim Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Makina Takim's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Makina Takim's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.62 and 10.22, respectively. We have considered Makina Takim's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Makina Takim stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Makina Takim stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0312 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1922 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0277 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.3423 |
Predictive Modules for Makina Takim
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Makina Takim Endustrisi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Makina Takim's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Makina Takim
For every potential investor in Makina, whether a beginner or expert, Makina Takim's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Makina Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Makina. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Makina Takim's price trends.Makina Takim Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Makina Takim stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Makina Takim could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Makina Takim by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Makina Takim Endustrisi Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Makina Takim's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Makina Takim's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Makina Takim Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Makina Takim stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Makina Takim shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Makina Takim stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Makina Takim Endustrisi entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Makina Takim Risk Indicators
The analysis of Makina Takim's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Makina Takim's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting makina stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.23 | |||
| Variance | 10.43 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Makina Takim
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Makina Takim position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Makina Takim will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Makina Takim could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Makina Takim when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Makina Takim - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Makina Takim Endustrisi to buy it.
The correlation of Makina Takim is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Makina Takim moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Makina Takim Endustrisi moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Makina Takim can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Makina Takim to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Makina Stock analysis
When running Makina Takim's price analysis, check to measure Makina Takim's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Makina Takim is operating at the current time. Most of Makina Takim's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Makina Takim's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Makina Takim's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Makina Takim to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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