Marriott International Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

M1TT34 Stock   305.62  5.91  1.90%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marriott International on the next trading day is expected to be 304.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 194.28. Marriott Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Marriott International stock prices and determine the direction of Marriott International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Marriott International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Most investors in Marriott International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Marriott International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Marriott International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Marriott International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Marriott International value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Marriott International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of June 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marriott International on the next trading day is expected to be 304.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.18, mean absolute percentage error of 16.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 194.28.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marriott Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marriott International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Marriott International Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Marriott InternationalMarriott International Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Marriott International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Marriott International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marriott International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 303.73 and 306.25, respectively. We have considered Marriott International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
305.62
303.73
Downside
304.99
Expected Value
306.25
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marriott International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marriott International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.9172
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.1849
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0103
SAESum of the absolute errors194.2798
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Marriott International. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Marriott International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Marriott International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marriott International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marriott International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.001.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.001.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
298.28303.82309.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Marriott International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Marriott International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Marriott International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Marriott International.

Other Forecasting Options for Marriott International

For every potential investor in Marriott, whether a beginner or expert, Marriott International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marriott Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marriott. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marriott International's price trends.

Marriott International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marriott International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marriott International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marriott International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Marriott International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Marriott International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Marriott International's current price.

Marriott International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marriott International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marriott International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marriott International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marriott International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Marriott International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Marriott International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marriott International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marriott stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Marriott Stock

When determining whether Marriott International is a strong investment it is important to analyze Marriott International's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Marriott International's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Marriott Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marriott International to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Marriott Stock refer to our How to Trade Marriott Stock guide.
You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marriott International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marriott International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marriott International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.