Light Wonder Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| LNW Stock | USD 95.11 1.81 1.87% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Light Wonder on the next trading day is expected to be 95.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 122.33. Light Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Light Wonder stock prices and determine the direction of Light Wonder's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Light Wonder's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Light Wonder's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Light Wonder's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Light Wonder fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Light Wonder to cross-verify your projections. Light |
Most investors in Light Wonder cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Light Wonder's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Light Wonder's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Light Wonder is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Light Wonder 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Light Wonder on the next trading day is expected to be 95.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.15, mean absolute percentage error of 7.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 122.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Light Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Light Wonder's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Light Wonder Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Light Wonder | Light Wonder Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Light Wonder Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Light Wonder's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Light Wonder's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 93.18 and 97.01, respectively. We have considered Light Wonder's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Light Wonder stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Light Wonder stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.7101 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2446 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.1462 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0224 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 122.3325 |
Predictive Modules for Light Wonder
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Light Wonder. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Light Wonder's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Light Wonder
For every potential investor in Light, whether a beginner or expert, Light Wonder's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Light Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Light. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Light Wonder's price trends.Light Wonder Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Light Wonder stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Light Wonder could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Light Wonder by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Light Wonder Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Light Wonder's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Light Wonder's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Light Wonder Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Light Wonder stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Light Wonder shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Light Wonder stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Light Wonder entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Light Wonder Risk Indicators
The analysis of Light Wonder's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Light Wonder's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting light stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Variance | 3.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.92 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Light Wonder is a strong investment it is important to analyze Light Wonder's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Light Wonder's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Light Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Light Wonder to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Light Stock please use our How to Invest in Light Wonder guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Complementary Tools for Light Stock analysis
When running Light Wonder's price analysis, check to measure Light Wonder's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Light Wonder is operating at the current time. Most of Light Wonder's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Light Wonder's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Light Wonder's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Light Wonder to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Light Wonder's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Light Wonder. If investors know Light will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Light Wonder listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.826 | Earnings Share 2.4 | Revenue Per Share 32.926 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.128 | Return On Assets 0.0747 |
The market value of Light Wonder is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Light that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Light Wonder's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Light Wonder's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Light Wonder's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Light Wonder's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Light Wonder's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Light Wonder is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Light Wonder's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.