Liberty Global Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| LBTYA Stock | USD 17.81 0.11 0.62% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Liberty Global PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 17.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.27. Liberty Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Liberty Global stock prices and determine the direction of Liberty Global PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Liberty Global's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Liberty |
Most investors in Liberty Global cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Liberty Global's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Liberty Global's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Liberty Global - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Liberty Global prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Liberty Global price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Liberty Global PLC. Liberty Global Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Liberty Global PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 17.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Liberty Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Liberty Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Liberty Global Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Liberty Global | Liberty Global Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Liberty Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Liberty Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Liberty Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.00 and 19.56, respectively. We have considered Liberty Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Liberty Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Liberty Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0473 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2588 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0154 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.27 |
Predictive Modules for Liberty Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Liberty Global PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Liberty Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Liberty Global
For every potential investor in Liberty, whether a beginner or expert, Liberty Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Liberty Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Liberty. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Liberty Global's price trends.Liberty Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Liberty Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Liberty Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Liberty Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Liberty Global PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Liberty Global's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Liberty Global's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Liberty Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Liberty Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Liberty Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Liberty Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Liberty Global PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 62427.73 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2037 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.96 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.91 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.1) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.11 |
Liberty Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Liberty Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Liberty Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting liberty stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Variance | 3.18 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Liberty Stock
When determining whether Liberty Global PLC is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Liberty Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Liberty Global Plc Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Liberty Global Plc Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Liberty Global to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Is Diversified Telecommunication Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Liberty Global. If investors know Liberty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Liberty Global listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Liberty Global PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Liberty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Liberty Global's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Liberty Global's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Liberty Global's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Liberty Global's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Liberty Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Liberty Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Liberty Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.