Investar Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ISTR Stock | USD 15.89 0.02 0.13% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Investar Holding Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.20. Investar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Investar Holding stock prices and determine the direction of Investar Holding Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Investar Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Investar Holding's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Investar Holding's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Investar Holding fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Investar Holding to cross-verify your projections. Investar |
Most investors in Investar Holding cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Investar Holding's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Investar Holding's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Investar Holding simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Investar Holding Corp are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Investar Holding Corp prices get older. Investar Holding Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Investar Holding Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Investar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Investar Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Investar Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
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Investar Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Investar Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Investar Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.78 and 17.00, respectively. We have considered Investar Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Investar Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Investar Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.7932 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.004 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1033 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0064 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.2 |
Predictive Modules for Investar Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Investar Holding Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Investar Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Investar Holding
For every potential investor in Investar, whether a beginner or expert, Investar Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Investar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Investar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Investar Holding's price trends.Investar Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Investar Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Investar Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Investar Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Investar Holding Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Investar Holding's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Investar Holding's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Investar Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Investar Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Investar Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Investar Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Investar Holding Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Investar Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Investar Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Investar Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting investar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6623 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Variance | 1.21 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Investar Holding to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Complementary Tools for Investar Stock analysis
When running Investar Holding's price analysis, check to measure Investar Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Investar Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Investar Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Investar Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Investar Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Investar Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Investar Holding's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Investar Holding. If investors know Investar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Investar Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.263 | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share 1.79 | Revenue Per Share 8.525 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.025 |
The market value of Investar Holding Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Investar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Investar Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Investar Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Investar Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Investar Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Investar Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Investar Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Investar Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.