Merrill Lynch Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| IPB Stock | USD 25.13 0.16 0.63% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Merrill Lynch Depositor on the next trading day is expected to be 25.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.68. Merrill Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Merrill Lynch stock prices and determine the direction of Merrill Lynch Depositor's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Merrill Lynch's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merrill Lynch to cross-verify your projections. Merrill |
Most investors in Merrill Lynch cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Merrill Lynch's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Merrill Lynch's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Merrill Lynch Depositor is based on a synthetically constructed Merrill Lynchdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Merrill Lynch 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Merrill Lynch Depositor on the next trading day is expected to be 25.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merrill Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merrill Lynch's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Merrill Lynch Stock Forecast Pattern
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Merrill Lynch Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Merrill Lynch's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merrill Lynch's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.55 and 26.21, respectively. We have considered Merrill Lynch's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merrill Lynch stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merrill Lynch stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 78.3744 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0447 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1873 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.681 |
Predictive Modules for Merrill Lynch
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merrill Lynch Depositor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merrill Lynch's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Merrill Lynch
For every potential investor in Merrill, whether a beginner or expert, Merrill Lynch's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merrill Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merrill. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merrill Lynch's price trends.Merrill Lynch Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merrill Lynch stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merrill Lynch could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merrill Lynch by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Merrill Lynch Depositor Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merrill Lynch's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merrill Lynch's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Merrill Lynch Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merrill Lynch stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merrill Lynch shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merrill Lynch stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merrill Lynch Depositor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0135 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.47) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.08 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.34 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.16) |
Merrill Lynch Risk Indicators
The analysis of Merrill Lynch's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merrill Lynch's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merrill stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4973 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7831 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8316 | |||
| Variance | 0.6916 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.53 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6133 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.69) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Merrill Lynch in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Merrill Lynch's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Merrill Lynch options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merrill Lynch to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Complementary Tools for Merrill Stock analysis
When running Merrill Lynch's price analysis, check to measure Merrill Lynch's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merrill Lynch is operating at the current time. Most of Merrill Lynch's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merrill Lynch's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merrill Lynch's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merrill Lynch to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Merrill Lynch's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merrill Lynch. If investors know Merrill will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merrill Lynch listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Merrill Lynch Depositor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merrill that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merrill Lynch's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merrill Lynch's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merrill Lynch's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merrill Lynch's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merrill Lynch's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Merrill Lynch is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merrill Lynch's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.