Indofood Cbp Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

ICBP Stock  IDR 10,675  75.00  0.71%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Indofood Cbp Sukses on the next trading day is expected to be 10,299 with a mean absolute deviation of  260.98  and the sum of the absolute errors of 15,920. Indofood Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Indofood Cbp stock prices and determine the direction of Indofood Cbp Sukses's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Indofood Cbp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Indofood Cbp to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Indofood Cbp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Indofood Cbp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Indofood Cbp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Indofood Cbp price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Indofood Cbp Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 17th of May 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Indofood Cbp Sukses on the next trading day is expected to be 10,299 with a mean absolute deviation of 260.98, mean absolute percentage error of 111,636, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15,920.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Indofood Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Indofood Cbp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Indofood Cbp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Indofood CbpIndofood Cbp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Indofood Cbp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Indofood Cbp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Indofood Cbp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10,297 and 10,301, respectively. We have considered Indofood Cbp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10,675
10,297
Downside
10,299
Expected Value
10,301
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Indofood Cbp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Indofood Cbp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria129.7335
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation260.9795
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0243
SAESum of the absolute errors15919.7515
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Indofood Cbp Sukses historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Indofood Cbp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Indofood Cbp Sukses. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Indofood Cbp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10,67310,67510,677
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8,9708,97211,742
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Indofood Cbp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Indofood Cbp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Indofood Cbp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Indofood Cbp Sukses.

Other Forecasting Options for Indofood Cbp

For every potential investor in Indofood, whether a beginner or expert, Indofood Cbp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Indofood Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Indofood. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Indofood Cbp's price trends.

Indofood Cbp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Indofood Cbp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Indofood Cbp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Indofood Cbp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Indofood Cbp Sukses Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Indofood Cbp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Indofood Cbp's current price.

Indofood Cbp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Indofood Cbp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Indofood Cbp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Indofood Cbp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Indofood Cbp Sukses entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Indofood Cbp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Indofood Cbp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Indofood Cbp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting indofood stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Indofood Cbp to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Indofood Cbp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Indofood Cbp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Indofood Cbp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.