HMN Financial Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| HMNF Stock | USD 21.60 0.78 3.49% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HMN Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 21.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.22. HMN Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast HMN Financial stock prices and determine the direction of HMN Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of HMN Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although HMN Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of HMN Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of HMN Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HMN Financial to cross-verify your projections. HMN |
Most investors in HMN Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the HMN Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets HMN Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for HMN Financial - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When HMN Financial prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in HMN Financial price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of HMN Financial. HMN Financial Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HMN Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 21.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HMN Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HMN Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HMN Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HMN Financial | HMN Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
HMN Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting HMN Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HMN Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.73 and 24.49, respectively. We have considered HMN Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HMN Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HMN Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0836 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2871 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0135 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.2237 |
Predictive Modules for HMN Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HMN Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HMN Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for HMN Financial
For every potential investor in HMN, whether a beginner or expert, HMN Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HMN Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HMN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HMN Financial's price trends.HMN Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HMN Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HMN Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HMN Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HMN Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of HMN Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of HMN Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HMN Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HMN Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HMN Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HMN Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HMN Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 238.98 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.15) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.86 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.77 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.65) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.78) |
HMN Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of HMN Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HMN Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hmn stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.81 | |||
| Variance | 7.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.44 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in HMN Stock
When determining whether HMN Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze HMN Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact HMN Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding HMN Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HMN Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in HMN Stock please use our How to Invest in HMN Financial guide.You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HMN Financial. If investors know HMN will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about HMN Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | Dividend Share 0.32 | Earnings Share 1.3 | Revenue Per Share 8.663 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of HMN Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of HMN that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HMN Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HMN Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HMN Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HMN Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HMN Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HMN Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HMN Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.