Hartford Financial Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average
| HIG Stock | USD 101.89 0.56 0.55% |
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Hartford Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 99.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.26. Hartford Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hartford Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Hartford Financial Services's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hartford Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hartford Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Hartford Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hartford Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hartford Financial to cross-verify your projections. Hartford |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Hartford Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hartford Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Hartford Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Hartford Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hartford Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Hartford Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hartford Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hartford. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Hartford Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hartford Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hartford Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Hartford Financial is based on an artificially constructed time series of Hartford Financial daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Hartford Financial 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 11th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Hartford Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 99.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.70, mean absolute percentage error of 3.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hartford Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hartford Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hartford Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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Hartford Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hartford Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hartford Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 98.15 and 100.35, respectively. We have considered Hartford Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hartford Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hartford Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 104.7687 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5115 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.703 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0172 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 90.2612 |
Predictive Modules for Hartford Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hartford Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hartford Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Hartford Financial
For every potential investor in Hartford, whether a beginner or expert, Hartford Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hartford Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hartford. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hartford Financial's price trends.Hartford Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hartford Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hartford Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hartford Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hartford Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hartford Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hartford Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hartford Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hartford Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hartford Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hartford Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hartford Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hartford Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hartford Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hartford Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hartford stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.738 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Variance | 1.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.44 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Hartford Financial Investors Sentiment
The influence of Hartford Financial's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Hartford. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Hartford Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hartford. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hartford can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hartford Financial Services. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Hartford Financial's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Hartford Financial's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Hartford Financial's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Hartford Financial.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hartford Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hartford Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hartford Financial options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hartford Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for Hartford Stock analysis
When running Hartford Financial's price analysis, check to measure Hartford Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hartford Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Hartford Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hartford Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hartford Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hartford Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hartford Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hartford Financial. If investors know Hartford will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hartford Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.488 | Dividend Share 1.79 | Earnings Share 8.78 | Revenue Per Share 82.675 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.086 |
The market value of Hartford Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hartford that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hartford Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hartford Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hartford Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hartford Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hartford Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hartford Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hartford Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.