Goosehead Insurance Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GSHD Stock | USD 63.38 0.09 0.14% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Goosehead Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 63.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.15. Goosehead Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Goosehead Insurance stock prices and determine the direction of Goosehead Insurance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Goosehead Insurance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Goosehead Insurance's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Goosehead Insurance's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Goosehead Insurance fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Goosehead Insurance to cross-verify your projections. Goosehead |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Goosehead Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Goosehead Insurance's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Goosehead Insurance's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Goosehead Insurance stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Goosehead Insurance's open interest, investors have to compare it to Goosehead Insurance's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Goosehead Insurance is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Goosehead. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Goosehead Insurance cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Goosehead Insurance's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Goosehead Insurance's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Goosehead Insurance simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Goosehead Insurance are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Goosehead Insurance prices get older. Goosehead Insurance Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Goosehead Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 63.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.48, mean absolute percentage error of 4.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Goosehead Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Goosehead Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Goosehead Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Goosehead Insurance | Goosehead Insurance Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Goosehead Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Goosehead Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Goosehead Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.55 and 67.21, respectively. We have considered Goosehead Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Goosehead Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Goosehead Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5678 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1359 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4779 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0228 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 90.15 |
Predictive Modules for Goosehead Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Goosehead Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Goosehead Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Goosehead Insurance
For every potential investor in Goosehead, whether a beginner or expert, Goosehead Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Goosehead Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Goosehead. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Goosehead Insurance's price trends.Goosehead Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Goosehead Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Goosehead Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Goosehead Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Goosehead Insurance Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Goosehead Insurance's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Goosehead Insurance's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Goosehead Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Goosehead Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Goosehead Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Goosehead Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Goosehead Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1847.51 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.11) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 63.17 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 63.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.17 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.09) |
Goosehead Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Goosehead Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Goosehead Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting goosehead stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.78 | |||
| Variance | 14.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| C | Citigroup | |
| CRM | Salesforce | |
| MSFT | Microsoft |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Goosehead Insurance to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Goosehead Stock refer to our How to Trade Goosehead Stock guide.Note that the Goosehead Insurance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Goosehead Insurance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Complementary Tools for Goosehead Stock analysis
When running Goosehead Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Goosehead Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Goosehead Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Goosehead Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Goosehead Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Goosehead Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Goosehead Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments | |
| Financial Widgets Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities | |
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios |
Is Goosehead Insurance's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Goosehead Insurance. If investors know Goosehead will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Goosehead Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.55 | Earnings Share 0.6 | Revenue Per Share 10.922 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.116 | Return On Assets 0.0581 |
The market value of Goosehead Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Goosehead that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Goosehead Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Goosehead Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Goosehead Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Goosehead Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Goosehead Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Goosehead Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Goosehead Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.