Metalurgica Gerdau Preferred Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GOAU4 Preferred Stock | BRL 10.88 0.07 0.64% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Metalurgica Gerdau SA on the next trading day is expected to be 10.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.24. Metalurgica Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Metalurgica Gerdau stock prices and determine the direction of Metalurgica Gerdau SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Metalurgica Gerdau's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Metalurgica Gerdau to cross-verify your projections. Metalurgica |
Most investors in Metalurgica Gerdau cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, preferred stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Metalurgica Gerdau's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Metalurgica Gerdau's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Metalurgica Gerdau simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Metalurgica Gerdau SA are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Metalurgica Gerdau prices get older. Metalurgica Gerdau Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Metalurgica Gerdau SA on the next trading day is expected to be 10.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Metalurgica Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Metalurgica Gerdau's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Metalurgica Gerdau Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern
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Metalurgica Gerdau Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Metalurgica Gerdau's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Metalurgica Gerdau's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.20 and 12.56, respectively. We have considered Metalurgica Gerdau's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Metalurgica Gerdau preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Metalurgica Gerdau preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.7796 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0117 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1373 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0131 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.24 |
Predictive Modules for Metalurgica Gerdau
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Metalurgica Gerdau. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Metalurgica Gerdau's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Metalurgica Gerdau
For every potential investor in Metalurgica, whether a beginner or expert, Metalurgica Gerdau's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Metalurgica Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Metalurgica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Metalurgica Gerdau's price trends.Metalurgica Gerdau Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Metalurgica Gerdau preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Metalurgica Gerdau could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Metalurgica Gerdau by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Metalurgica Gerdau Technical and Predictive Analytics
The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Metalurgica Gerdau's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Metalurgica Gerdau's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Metalurgica Gerdau Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Metalurgica Gerdau preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Metalurgica Gerdau shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Metalurgica Gerdau preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Metalurgica Gerdau SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Metalurgica Gerdau Risk Indicators
The analysis of Metalurgica Gerdau's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Metalurgica Gerdau's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting metalurgica preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Variance | 2.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.87 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Metalurgica Gerdau to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Metalurgica Gerdau information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Metalurgica Gerdau's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Complementary Tools for Metalurgica Preferred Stock analysis
When running Metalurgica Gerdau's price analysis, check to measure Metalurgica Gerdau's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Metalurgica Gerdau is operating at the current time. Most of Metalurgica Gerdau's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Metalurgica Gerdau's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Metalurgica Gerdau's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Metalurgica Gerdau to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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