Flowers Foods Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| FLO Stock | USD 24.35 0.10 0.41% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Flowers Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 24.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.29. Flowers Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Flowers Foods stock prices and determine the direction of Flowers Foods's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Flowers Foods' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Flowers Foods' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Flowers Foods' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Flowers Foods fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Flowers Foods to cross-verify your projections. Flowers |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Flowers Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Flowers Foods' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Flowers Foods' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Flowers Foods stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Flowers Foods' open interest, investors have to compare it to Flowers Foods' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Flowers Foods is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Flowers. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Flowers Foods cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Flowers Foods' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Flowers Foods' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Flowers Foods is based on a synthetically constructed Flowers Foodsdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Flowers Foods 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Flowers Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 24.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71, mean absolute percentage error of 0.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Flowers Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Flowers Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Flowers Foods Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Flowers Foods | Flowers Foods Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Flowers Foods Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Flowers Foods' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Flowers Foods' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.90 and 26.08, respectively. We have considered Flowers Foods' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Flowers Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Flowers Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 80.975 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5491 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7143 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0291 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.287 |
Predictive Modules for Flowers Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Flowers Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Flowers Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Flowers Foods
For every potential investor in Flowers, whether a beginner or expert, Flowers Foods' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Flowers Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Flowers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Flowers Foods' price trends.Flowers Foods Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Flowers Foods stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Flowers Foods could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Flowers Foods by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Flowers Foods Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Flowers Foods' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Flowers Foods' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Flowers Foods Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Flowers Foods stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Flowers Foods shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Flowers Foods stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Flowers Foods entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Flowers Foods Risk Indicators
The analysis of Flowers Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Flowers Foods' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting flowers stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7772 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9714 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Variance | 1.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9435 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.80) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Flowers Foods to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Flowers Stock, please use our How to Invest in Flowers Foods guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Flowers Stock analysis
When running Flowers Foods' price analysis, check to measure Flowers Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Flowers Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Flowers Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Flowers Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Flowers Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Flowers Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Flowers Foods' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Flowers Foods. If investors know Flowers will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Flowers Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.2 | Dividend Share 0.92 | Earnings Share 0.59 | Revenue Per Share 24.275 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.088 |
The market value of Flowers Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Flowers that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Flowers Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Flowers Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Flowers Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Flowers Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Flowers Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Flowers Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Flowers Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.