FedEx Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FDX Stock | USD 257.25 1.53 0.59% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FedEx on the next trading day is expected to be 256.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.66. FedEx Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast FedEx stock prices and determine the direction of FedEx's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FedEx's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although FedEx's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of FedEx's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of FedEx fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FedEx to cross-verify your projections. FedEx |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-24 FedEx Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast FedEx's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in FedEx's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for FedEx stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current FedEx's open interest, investors have to compare it to FedEx's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of FedEx is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in FedEx. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in FedEx cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the FedEx's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets FedEx's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for FedEx - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When FedEx prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in FedEx price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of FedEx. FedEx Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FedEx on the next trading day is expected to be 256.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.82, mean absolute percentage error of 17.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FedEx Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FedEx's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FedEx Stock Forecast Pattern
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FedEx Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FedEx's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FedEx's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 255.16 and 258.07, respectively. We have considered FedEx's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FedEx stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FedEx stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2312 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.8248 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0106 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 166.6639 |
Predictive Modules for FedEx
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FedEx. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FedEx's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for FedEx
For every potential investor in FedEx, whether a beginner or expert, FedEx's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FedEx Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FedEx. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FedEx's price trends.FedEx Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FedEx stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FedEx could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FedEx by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FedEx Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FedEx's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FedEx's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FedEx Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FedEx stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FedEx shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FedEx stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FedEx entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
FedEx Risk Indicators
The analysis of FedEx's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FedEx's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fedex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9581 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Variance | 2.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.53 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.05 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.04) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether FedEx offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of FedEx's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Fedex Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Fedex Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FedEx to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy FedEx Stock please use our How to Invest in FedEx guide.Note that the FedEx information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other FedEx's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for FedEx Stock analysis
When running FedEx's price analysis, check to measure FedEx's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FedEx is operating at the current time. Most of FedEx's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FedEx's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FedEx's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FedEx to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is FedEx's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FedEx. If investors know FedEx will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FedEx listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | Dividend Share 5.04 | Earnings Share 17.34 | Revenue Per Share 350.758 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.139 |
The market value of FedEx is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FedEx that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FedEx's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FedEx's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FedEx's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FedEx's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FedEx's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FedEx is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FedEx's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.