Fastenal Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| FAST Stock | USD 63.38 0.51 0.80% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Fastenal Company on the next trading day is expected to be 64.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.94. Fastenal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Fastenal |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Fastenal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fastenal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fastenal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fastenal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fastenal's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fastenal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fastenal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fastenal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Fastenal cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fastenal's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fastenal's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Fastenal Company is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Fastenal 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 11th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Fastenal Company on the next trading day is expected to be 64.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93, mean absolute percentage error of 1.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fastenal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fastenal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fastenal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fastenal | Fastenal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fastenal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fastenal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fastenal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 62.87 and 65.36, respectively. We have considered Fastenal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fastenal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fastenal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.3662 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.5022 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9288 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0134 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 52.94 |
Predictive Modules for Fastenal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fastenal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fastenal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Fastenal
For every potential investor in Fastenal, whether a beginner or expert, Fastenal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fastenal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fastenal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fastenal's price trends.Fastenal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fastenal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fastenal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fastenal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fastenal Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fastenal's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fastenal's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fastenal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fastenal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fastenal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fastenal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fastenal Company entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 38440.74 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.65) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 63.57 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 63.51 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.44) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.51) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 34.06 |
Fastenal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fastenal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fastenal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fastenal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8679 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Variance | 1.64 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Fastenal
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Fastenal position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Fastenal will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Fastenal Stock
| 0.75 | SMSMY | Sims Metal Management | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | BV | BrightView Holdings Fiscal Year End 21st of November 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | WSO | Watsco Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | TRNS | Transcat | PairCorr |
| 0.59 | BE | Bloom Energy Corp | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Fastenal could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Fastenal when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Fastenal - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Fastenal Company to buy it.
The correlation of Fastenal is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Fastenal moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Fastenal moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Fastenal can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Fastenal Stock Analysis
When running Fastenal's price analysis, check to measure Fastenal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fastenal is operating at the current time. Most of Fastenal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fastenal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fastenal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fastenal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.