Establishment Labs Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ESTA Stock | USD 48.47 0.07 0.14% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Establishment Labs Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 46.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.40. Establishment Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Establishment Labs stock prices and determine the direction of Establishment Labs Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Establishment Labs' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Establishment Labs' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Establishment Labs' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Establishment Labs fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Establishment Labs to cross-verify your projections. Establishment |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Establishment Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Establishment Labs' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Establishment Labs' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Establishment Labs stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Establishment Labs' open interest, investors have to compare it to Establishment Labs' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Establishment Labs is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Establishment. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Establishment Labs cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Establishment Labs' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Establishment Labs' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Establishment Labs is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Establishment Labs Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Establishment Labs Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Establishment Labs Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 46.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.60, mean absolute percentage error of 3.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Establishment Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Establishment Labs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Establishment Labs Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Establishment Labs | Establishment Labs Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Establishment Labs Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Establishment Labs' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Establishment Labs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.53 and 50.57, respectively. We have considered Establishment Labs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Establishment Labs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Establishment Labs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4389 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5966 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0356 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 97.3954 |
Predictive Modules for Establishment Labs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Establishment Labs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Establishment Labs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Establishment Labs
For every potential investor in Establishment, whether a beginner or expert, Establishment Labs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Establishment Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Establishment. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Establishment Labs' price trends.Establishment Labs Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Establishment Labs stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Establishment Labs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Establishment Labs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Establishment Labs Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Establishment Labs' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Establishment Labs' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Establishment Labs Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Establishment Labs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Establishment Labs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Establishment Labs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Establishment Labs Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Establishment Labs Risk Indicators
The analysis of Establishment Labs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Establishment Labs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting establishment stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.03 | |||
| Variance | 16.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.38 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.91) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Establishment Labs
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Establishment Labs position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Establishment Labs will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Establishment Stock
| 0.92 | MMSI | Merit Medical Systems | PairCorr |
| 0.87 | SSY | SunLink Health Systems | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | TFX | Teleflex Incorporated Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | CTKB | Cytek Biosciences Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | DRMA | Dermata Therapeutics Financial Report 9th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Establishment Labs could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Establishment Labs when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Establishment Labs - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Establishment Labs Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Establishment Labs is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Establishment Labs moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Establishment Labs moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Establishment Labs can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Establishment Labs to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Establishment Stock analysis
When running Establishment Labs' price analysis, check to measure Establishment Labs' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Establishment Labs is operating at the current time. Most of Establishment Labs' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Establishment Labs' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Establishment Labs' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Establishment Labs to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Establishment Labs' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Establishment Labs. If investors know Establishment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Establishment Labs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (3.07) | Revenue Per Share 6.451 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.28) | Return On Assets (0.17) | Return On Equity (15.38) |
The market value of Establishment Labs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Establishment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Establishment Labs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Establishment Labs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Establishment Labs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Establishment Labs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Establishment Labs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Establishment Labs is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Establishment Labs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.