Eregli Demir Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| EREGL Stock | TRY 46.22 0.22 0.47% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Eregli Demir ve on the next trading day is expected to be 47.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.43. Eregli Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Eregli Demir's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Eregli |
Most investors in Eregli Demir cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Eregli Demir's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Eregli Demir's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Eregli Demir polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Eregli Demir ve as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Eregli Demir Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 12th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Eregli Demir ve on the next trading day is expected to be 47.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73, mean absolute percentage error of 0.81, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eregli Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eregli Demir's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Eregli Demir Stock Forecast Pattern
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Eregli Demir Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Eregli Demir's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eregli Demir's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.10 and 48.92, respectively. We have considered Eregli Demir's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eregli Demir stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eregli Demir stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9011 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7284 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0168 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 44.4329 |
Predictive Modules for Eregli Demir
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eregli Demir ve. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eregli Demir's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Eregli Demir
For every potential investor in Eregli, whether a beginner or expert, Eregli Demir's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eregli Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eregli. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eregli Demir's price trends.Eregli Demir Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eregli Demir stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eregli Demir could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eregli Demir by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Eregli Demir ve Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eregli Demir's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eregli Demir's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Eregli Demir Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eregli Demir stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eregli Demir shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eregli Demir stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eregli Demir ve entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1.7 M | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.20) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 46.64 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 46.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.53) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.22) |
Eregli Demir Risk Indicators
The analysis of Eregli Demir's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eregli Demir's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eregli stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.16 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Eregli Demir
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Eregli Demir position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Eregli Demir will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Eregli Stock
Moving against Eregli Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Eregli Demir could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Eregli Demir when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Eregli Demir - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Eregli Demir ve to buy it.
The correlation of Eregli Demir is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Eregli Demir moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Eregli Demir ve moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Eregli Demir can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Eregli Stock
Eregli Demir financial ratios help investors to determine whether Eregli Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Eregli with respect to the benefits of owning Eregli Demir security.