Empire Petroleum Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| EP Stock | USD 7.39 0.42 6.03% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Empire Petroleum Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 7.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.08. Empire Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Empire Petroleum stock prices and determine the direction of Empire Petroleum Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Empire Petroleum's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Empire Petroleum to cross-verify your projections. Empire |
Most investors in Empire Petroleum cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Empire Petroleum's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Empire Petroleum's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Empire Petroleum - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Empire Petroleum prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Empire Petroleum price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Empire Petroleum Corp. Empire Petroleum Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Empire Petroleum Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 7.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Empire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Empire Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Empire Petroleum Stock Forecast Pattern
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Empire Petroleum Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Empire Petroleum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Empire Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.23 and 11.67, respectively. We have considered Empire Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Empire Petroleum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Empire Petroleum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0353 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2047 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0363 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.08 |
Predictive Modules for Empire Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Empire Petroleum Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Empire Petroleum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Empire Petroleum
For every potential investor in Empire, whether a beginner or expert, Empire Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Empire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Empire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Empire Petroleum's price trends.View Empire Petroleum Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Empire Petroleum Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Empire Petroleum's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Empire Petroleum's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Empire Petroleum Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Empire Petroleum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Empire Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Empire Petroleum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Empire Petroleum Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Empire Petroleum Risk Indicators
The analysis of Empire Petroleum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Empire Petroleum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting empire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.22 | |||
| Variance | 17.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 18.29 | |||
| Semi Variance | 15.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.51) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Complementary Tools for Empire Stock analysis
When running Empire Petroleum's price analysis, check to measure Empire Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Empire Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Empire Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Empire Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Empire Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Empire Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Empire Petroleum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Empire Petroleum. If investors know Empire will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Empire Petroleum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Empire Petroleum Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Empire that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Empire Petroleum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Empire Petroleum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Empire Petroleum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Empire Petroleum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Empire Petroleum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Empire Petroleum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Empire Petroleum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.