Enova International Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ENVA Stock | USD 61.45 0.20 0.33% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Enova International on the next trading day is expected to be 61.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.37. Enova Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Enova International stock prices and determine the direction of Enova International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Enova International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Enova International's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Enova International's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Enova International fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Enova International to cross-verify your projections. Enova |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Enova Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Enova International's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Enova International's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Enova International stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Enova International's open interest, investors have to compare it to Enova International's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Enova International is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Enova. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Enova International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Enova International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Enova International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Enova International - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Enova International prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Enova International price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Enova International. Enova International Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Enova International on the next trading day is expected to be 61.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85, mean absolute percentage error of 1.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Enova Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Enova International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Enova International Stock Forecast Pattern
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Enova International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Enova International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Enova International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.71 and 62.87, respectively. We have considered Enova International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Enova International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Enova International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1641 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8537 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0138 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 50.3685 |
Predictive Modules for Enova International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Enova International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Enova International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Enova International
For every potential investor in Enova, whether a beginner or expert, Enova International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Enova Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Enova. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Enova International's price trends.Enova International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Enova International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Enova International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Enova International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Enova International Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Enova International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Enova International's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Enova International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Enova International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Enova International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Enova International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Enova International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 61.45 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 61.45 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.1 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.2 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.03 |
Enova International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Enova International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Enova International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting enova stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Variance | 2.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| C | Citigroup | |
| CRM | Salesforce | |
| MSFT | Microsoft |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Enova International to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Enova Stock refer to our How to Trade Enova Stock guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
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When running Enova International's price analysis, check to measure Enova International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Enova International is operating at the current time. Most of Enova International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Enova International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Enova International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Enova International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Enova International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Enova International. If investors know Enova will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Enova International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.051 | Earnings Share 5.57 | Revenue Per Share 35.897 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.155 | Return On Assets 0.0407 |
The market value of Enova International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Enova that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Enova International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Enova International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Enova International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Enova International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Enova International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Enova International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Enova International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.