ENCE Energa Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ENC Stock | EUR 3.46 0.04 1.17% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ENCE Energa y on the next trading day is expected to be 3.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.78. ENCE Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ENCE Energa stock prices and determine the direction of ENCE Energa y's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ENCE Energa's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ENCE Energa to cross-verify your projections. ENCE |
Most investors in ENCE Energa cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ENCE Energa's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ENCE Energa's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for ENCE Energa is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility. ENCE Energa Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ENCE Energa y on the next trading day is expected to be 3.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ENCE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ENCE Energa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ENCE Energa Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ENCE Energa | ENCE Energa Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ENCE Energa Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ENCE Energa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ENCE Energa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.73 and 5.19, respectively. We have considered ENCE Energa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ENCE Energa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ENCE Energa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.9944 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0168 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0471 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0151 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.78 |
Predictive Modules for ENCE Energa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ENCE Energa y. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ENCE Energa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for ENCE Energa
For every potential investor in ENCE, whether a beginner or expert, ENCE Energa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ENCE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ENCE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ENCE Energa's price trends.ENCE Energa Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ENCE Energa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ENCE Energa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ENCE Energa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ENCE Energa y Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ENCE Energa's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ENCE Energa's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ENCE Energa Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ENCE Energa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ENCE Energa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ENCE Energa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ENCE Energa y entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ENCE Energa Risk Indicators
The analysis of ENCE Energa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ENCE Energa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ence stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Variance | 2.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.19 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with ENCE Energa
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ENCE Energa position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ENCE Energa will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with ENCE Stock
| 0.93 | SAN | Banco Santander | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | BBVA | Banco Bilbao Vizcaya | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | CABK | Caixabank SA | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | SAB | Banco de Sabadell | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | IBE | Iberdrola SA Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ENCE Energa could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ENCE Energa when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ENCE Energa - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ENCE Energa y to buy it.
The correlation of ENCE Energa is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ENCE Energa moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ENCE Energa y moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ENCE Energa can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ENCE Energa to cross-verify your projections. Note that the ENCE Energa y information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ENCE Energa's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Complementary Tools for ENCE Stock analysis
When running ENCE Energa's price analysis, check to measure ENCE Energa's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ENCE Energa is operating at the current time. Most of ENCE Energa's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ENCE Energa's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ENCE Energa's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ENCE Energa to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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