Educational Development Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| EDUC Stock | USD 1.89 0.07 3.57% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Educational Development on the next trading day is expected to be 2.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.39. Educational Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Educational Development stock prices and determine the direction of Educational Development's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Educational Development's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Educational Development's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Educational Development's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Educational Development fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Educational Development to cross-verify your projections. Educational |
Most investors in Educational Development cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Educational Development's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Educational Development's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Educational Development price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Educational Development Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Educational Development on the next trading day is expected to be 2.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Educational Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Educational Development's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Educational Development Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Educational Development | Educational Development Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Educational Development Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Educational Development's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Educational Development's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 8.67, respectively. We have considered Educational Development's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Educational Development stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Educational Development stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.523 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2031 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0941 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.3889 |
Predictive Modules for Educational Development
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Educational Development. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Educational Development's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Educational Development
For every potential investor in Educational, whether a beginner or expert, Educational Development's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Educational Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Educational. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Educational Development's price trends.Educational Development Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Educational Development stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Educational Development could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Educational Development by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Educational Development Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Educational Development's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Educational Development's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Educational Development Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Educational Development stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Educational Development shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Educational Development stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Educational Development entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Educational Development Risk Indicators
The analysis of Educational Development's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Educational Development's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting educational stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.54 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.43 | |||
| Variance | 41.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 31.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 27.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.09) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| GM | General Motors | |
| CRM | Salesforce |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Educational Development to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Educational Stock refer to our How to Trade Educational Stock guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Educational Stock analysis
When running Educational Development's price analysis, check to measure Educational Development's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Educational Development is operating at the current time. Most of Educational Development's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Educational Development's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Educational Development's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Educational Development to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Educational Development's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Educational Development. If investors know Educational will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Educational Development listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.2 K | Earnings Share 0.07 | Revenue Per Share 6.171 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.40) | Return On Assets (0.04) |
The market value of Educational Development is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Educational that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Educational Development's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Educational Development's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Educational Development's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Educational Development's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Educational Development's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Educational Development is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Educational Development's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.