ECD Automotive Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ECDAW Stock | 0.03 0.01 37.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ECD Automotive Design on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.48. ECD Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ECD Automotive stock prices and determine the direction of ECD Automotive Design's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ECD Automotive's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although ECD Automotive's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ECD Automotive's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ECD Automotive fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ECD Automotive to cross-verify your projections. ECD |
Most investors in ECD Automotive cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ECD Automotive's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ECD Automotive's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
ECD Automotive simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for ECD Automotive Design are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as ECD Automotive Design prices get older. ECD Automotive Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ECD Automotive Design on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ECD Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ECD Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ECD Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern
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ECD Automotive Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ECD Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ECD Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0003 and 36.22, respectively. We have considered ECD Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ECD Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ECD Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 105.2535 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0019 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0081 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.2723 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.4794 |
Predictive Modules for ECD Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ECD Automotive Design. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ECD Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for ECD Automotive
For every potential investor in ECD, whether a beginner or expert, ECD Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ECD Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ECD. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ECD Automotive's price trends.ECD Automotive Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ECD Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ECD Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ECD Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ECD Automotive Design Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ECD Automotive's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ECD Automotive's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ECD Automotive Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ECD Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ECD Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ECD Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ECD Automotive Design entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.45 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.73) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.63 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.0349 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.0317 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.0202 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.61 |
ECD Automotive Risk Indicators
The analysis of ECD Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ECD Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ecd stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 26.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 22.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 39.84 | |||
| Variance | 1587.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 886.95 | |||
| Semi Variance | 495.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (42.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether ECD Automotive Design is a strong investment it is important to analyze ECD Automotive's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact ECD Automotive's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding ECD Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ECD Automotive to cross-verify your projections. Note that the ECD Automotive Design information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ECD Automotive's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Complementary Tools for ECD Stock analysis
When running ECD Automotive's price analysis, check to measure ECD Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ECD Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of ECD Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ECD Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ECD Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ECD Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ECD Automotive's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ECD Automotive. If investors know ECD will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ECD Automotive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of ECD Automotive Design is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ECD that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ECD Automotive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ECD Automotive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ECD Automotive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ECD Automotive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ECD Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ECD Automotive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ECD Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.