Dunham Dynamic Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| DNAVX Fund | USD 12.19 0.05 0.41% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Dunham Dynamic Macro on the next trading day is expected to be 12.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.99. Dunham Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Dunham Dynamic stock prices and determine the direction of Dunham Dynamic Macro's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Dunham Dynamic's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dunham Dynamic to cross-verify your projections. Dunham |
Most investors in Dunham Dynamic cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Dunham Dynamic's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Dunham Dynamic's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Dunham Dynamic Macro is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Dunham Dynamic 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of June
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Dunham Dynamic Macro on the next trading day is expected to be 12.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dunham Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dunham Dynamic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Dunham Dynamic Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Dunham Dynamic | Dunham Dynamic Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Dunham Dynamic Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Dunham Dynamic's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dunham Dynamic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.78 and 12.56, respectively. We have considered Dunham Dynamic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dunham Dynamic mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dunham Dynamic mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 105.3637 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0112 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0525 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0044 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.99 |
Predictive Modules for Dunham Dynamic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dunham Dynamic Macro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dunham Dynamic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Dunham Dynamic
For every potential investor in Dunham, whether a beginner or expert, Dunham Dynamic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dunham Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dunham. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dunham Dynamic's price trends.Dunham Dynamic Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dunham Dynamic mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dunham Dynamic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dunham Dynamic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dunham Dynamic Macro Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dunham Dynamic's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dunham Dynamic's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Dunham Dynamic Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dunham Dynamic mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dunham Dynamic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dunham Dynamic mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Dunham Dynamic Macro entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.19 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.025 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.16 |
Dunham Dynamic Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dunham Dynamic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dunham Dynamic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dunham mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3318 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2964 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.395 | |||
| Variance | 0.156 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.1586 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0878 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.37) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dunham Dynamic to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.