Delta Apparel Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DLA Stock | USD 2.55 0.09 3.41% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Delta Apparel on the next trading day is expected to be 1.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.96. Delta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Delta Apparel stock prices and determine the direction of Delta Apparel's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Delta Apparel's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Delta Apparel's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Delta Apparel's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Delta Apparel fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delta Apparel to cross-verify your projections. Delta |
Most investors in Delta Apparel cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Delta Apparel's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Delta Apparel's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Delta Apparel is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Delta Apparel value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Delta Apparel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Delta Apparel on the next trading day is expected to be 1.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Delta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Delta Apparel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Delta Apparel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Delta Apparel | Delta Apparel Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Delta Apparel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Delta Apparel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Delta Apparel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 9.75, respectively. We have considered Delta Apparel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Delta Apparel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Delta Apparel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4494 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3271 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1026 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.9553 |
Predictive Modules for Delta Apparel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Delta Apparel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Delta Apparel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Delta Apparel
For every potential investor in Delta, whether a beginner or expert, Delta Apparel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Delta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Delta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Delta Apparel's price trends.Delta Apparel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Delta Apparel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Delta Apparel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Delta Apparel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Delta Apparel Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Delta Apparel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Delta Apparel's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Delta Apparel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Delta Apparel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Delta Apparel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Delta Apparel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Delta Apparel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Delta Apparel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Delta Apparel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Delta Apparel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting delta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.79 | |||
| Variance | 60.69 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Delta Apparel in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Delta Apparel's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Delta Apparel options trading.
Pair Trading with Delta Apparel
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Delta Apparel position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Delta Apparel will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Delta Stock
| 0.94 | VZIO | Vizio Holding Corp Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | TOL | Toll Brothers Financial Report 28th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | DOGZ | Dogness International | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | NVR | NVR Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.54 | KBH | KB Home Financial Report 19th of June 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Delta Apparel could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Delta Apparel when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Delta Apparel - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Delta Apparel to buy it.
The correlation of Delta Apparel is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Delta Apparel moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Delta Apparel moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Delta Apparel can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delta Apparel to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Delta Stock refer to our How to Trade Delta Stock guide.You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Complementary Tools for Delta Stock analysis
When running Delta Apparel's price analysis, check to measure Delta Apparel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Delta Apparel is operating at the current time. Most of Delta Apparel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Delta Apparel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Delta Apparel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Delta Apparel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Delta Apparel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Delta Apparel. If investors know Delta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Delta Apparel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.23) | Earnings Share (5.46) | Revenue Per Share 55.417 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.26) | Return On Assets (0.03) |
The market value of Delta Apparel is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Delta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Delta Apparel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Delta Apparel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Delta Apparel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Delta Apparel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Delta Apparel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Delta Apparel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Delta Apparel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.