Collegium Pharmaceutical Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| COLL Stock | USD 32.47 1.20 3.56% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Collegium Pharmaceutical on the next trading day is expected to be 35.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.14. Collegium Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Collegium Pharmaceutical stock prices and determine the direction of Collegium Pharmaceutical's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Collegium Pharmaceutical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Collegium Pharmaceutical fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical to cross-verify your projections. Collegium |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Collegium Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Collegium Pharmaceutical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Collegium Pharmaceutical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Collegium Pharmaceutical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Collegium Pharmaceutical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Collegium Pharmaceutical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Collegium Pharmaceutical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Collegium. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Collegium Pharmaceutical cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Collegium Pharmaceutical's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Collegium Pharmaceutical's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Collegium Pharmaceutical price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Collegium Pharmaceutical Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Collegium Pharmaceutical on the next trading day is expected to be 35.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.61, mean absolute percentage error of 3.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Collegium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Collegium Pharmaceutical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Collegium Pharmaceutical Stock Forecast Pattern
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Collegium Pharmaceutical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Collegium Pharmaceutical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Collegium Pharmaceutical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.01 and 38.22, respectively. We have considered Collegium Pharmaceutical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Collegium Pharmaceutical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Collegium Pharmaceutical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3032 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6088 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0438 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 98.1366 |
Predictive Modules for Collegium Pharmaceutical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Collegium Pharmaceutical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Collegium Pharmaceutical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Collegium Pharmaceutical
For every potential investor in Collegium, whether a beginner or expert, Collegium Pharmaceutical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Collegium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Collegium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Collegium Pharmaceutical's price trends.Collegium Pharmaceutical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Collegium Pharmaceutical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Collegium Pharmaceutical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Collegium Pharmaceutical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Collegium Pharmaceutical's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Collegium Pharmaceutical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Collegium Pharmaceutical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Collegium Pharmaceutical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Collegium Pharmaceutical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Collegium Pharmaceutical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Collegium Pharmaceutical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting collegium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.13 | |||
| Variance | 9.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Collegium Stock please use our How to buy in Collegium Stock guide.You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Complementary Tools for Collegium Stock analysis
When running Collegium Pharmaceutical's price analysis, check to measure Collegium Pharmaceutical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Collegium Pharmaceutical is operating at the current time. Most of Collegium Pharmaceutical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Collegium Pharmaceutical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Collegium Pharmaceutical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Collegium Pharmaceutical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Collegium Pharmaceutical's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Collegium Pharmaceutical. If investors know Collegium will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Collegium Pharmaceutical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 51.976 | Earnings Share 2.51 | Revenue Per Share 17.054 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.001 | Return On Assets 0.1056 |
The market value of Collegium Pharmaceutical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Collegium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Collegium Pharmaceutical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Collegium Pharmaceutical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Collegium Pharmaceutical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Collegium Pharmaceutical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Collegium Pharmaceutical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Collegium Pharmaceutical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Collegium Pharmaceutical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.