Cathay General Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CATY Stock | USD 35.69 0.77 2.11% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cathay General Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 35.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.08. Cathay Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Cathay |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Cathay Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cathay General's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Cathay General's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Cathay General stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cathay General's open interest, investors have to compare it to Cathay General's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cathay General is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cathay. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Cathay General cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Cathay General's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Cathay General's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Cathay General simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Cathay General Bancorp are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Cathay General Bancorp prices get older. Cathay General Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cathay General Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 35.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cathay Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cathay General's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cathay General Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cathay General | Cathay General Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Cathay General Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cathay General's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cathay General's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.02 and 37.63, respectively. We have considered Cathay General's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cathay General stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cathay General stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3955 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0347 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.468 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.013 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.0814 |
Predictive Modules for Cathay General
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cathay General Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cathay General's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Cathay General
For every potential investor in Cathay, whether a beginner or expert, Cathay General's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cathay Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cathay. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cathay General's price trends.Cathay General Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cathay General stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cathay General could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cathay General by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cathay General Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cathay General's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cathay General's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cathay General Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cathay General stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cathay General shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cathay General stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cathay General Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cathay General Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cathay General's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cathay General's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cathay stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Variance | 3.16 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| SGC | Superior Uniform Group | |
| VLN | Valens | |
| GNFT | Genfit |
Additional Tools for Cathay Stock Analysis
When running Cathay General's price analysis, check to measure Cathay General's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cathay General is operating at the current time. Most of Cathay General's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cathay General's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cathay General's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cathay General to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.