Berry Petroleum Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BRY Stock | USD 6.97 0.14 2.05% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Berry Petroleum Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 7.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.06. Berry Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Berry Petroleum stock prices and determine the direction of Berry Petroleum Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Berry Petroleum's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Berry Petroleum's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Berry Petroleum's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Berry Petroleum fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Berry Petroleum to cross-verify your projections. Berry |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Berry Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Berry Petroleum's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Berry Petroleum's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Berry Petroleum stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Berry Petroleum's open interest, investors have to compare it to Berry Petroleum's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Berry Petroleum is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Berry. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Berry Petroleum cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Berry Petroleum's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Berry Petroleum's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Berry Petroleum is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Berry Petroleum Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Berry Petroleum Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Berry Petroleum Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 7.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Berry Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Berry Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Berry Petroleum Stock Forecast Pattern
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Berry Petroleum Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Berry Petroleum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Berry Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.34 and 8.83, respectively. We have considered Berry Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Berry Petroleum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Berry Petroleum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4819 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1321 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0168 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.0557 |
Predictive Modules for Berry Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Berry Petroleum Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Berry Petroleum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Berry Petroleum
For every potential investor in Berry, whether a beginner or expert, Berry Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Berry Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Berry. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Berry Petroleum's price trends.View Berry Petroleum Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Berry Petroleum Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Berry Petroleum's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Berry Petroleum's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Berry Petroleum Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Berry Petroleum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Berry Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Berry Petroleum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Berry Petroleum Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Berry Petroleum Risk Indicators
The analysis of Berry Petroleum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Berry Petroleum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting berry stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Variance | 3.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.75 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.43 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Berry Petroleum Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Berry Petroleum's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Berry Petroleum Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Berry Petroleum Corp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Berry Petroleum to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Berry Stock analysis
When running Berry Petroleum's price analysis, check to measure Berry Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Berry Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Berry Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Berry Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Berry Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Berry Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Berry Petroleum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Berry Petroleum. If investors know Berry will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Berry Petroleum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | Dividend Share 0.73 | Earnings Share 0.03 | Revenue Per Share 11.164 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of Berry Petroleum Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Berry that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Berry Petroleum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Berry Petroleum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Berry Petroleum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Berry Petroleum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Berry Petroleum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Berry Petroleum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Berry Petroleum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.