Assicurazioni Generali Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

ARZGY Stock  USD 13.62  0.01  0.07%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Assicurazioni Generali SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 13.72 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.08  and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.64. Assicurazioni Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Assicurazioni Generali stock prices and determine the direction of Assicurazioni Generali SpA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Assicurazioni Generali's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Assicurazioni Generali to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Assicurazioni Generali cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Assicurazioni Generali's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Assicurazioni Generali's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Assicurazioni Generali is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Assicurazioni Generali SpA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Assicurazioni Generali Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Assicurazioni Generali SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 13.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.64.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Assicurazioni Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Assicurazioni Generali's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Assicurazioni Generali Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Assicurazioni GeneraliAssicurazioni Generali Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Assicurazioni Generali Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Assicurazioni Generali's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Assicurazioni Generali's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.78 and 14.66, respectively. We have considered Assicurazioni Generali's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.62
13.72
Expected Value
14.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Assicurazioni Generali pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Assicurazioni Generali pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.4454
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0761
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0061
SAESum of the absolute errors4.6435
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Assicurazioni Generali SpA. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Assicurazioni Generali. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Assicurazioni Generali

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Assicurazioni Generali. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Assicurazioni Generali's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.6813.6214.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.2615.5516.49
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.5612.6613.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Assicurazioni Generali. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Assicurazioni Generali's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Assicurazioni Generali's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Assicurazioni Generali.

Other Forecasting Options for Assicurazioni Generali

For every potential investor in Assicurazioni, whether a beginner or expert, Assicurazioni Generali's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Assicurazioni Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Assicurazioni. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Assicurazioni Generali's price trends.

Assicurazioni Generali Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Assicurazioni Generali pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Assicurazioni Generali could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Assicurazioni Generali by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Assicurazioni Generali Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Assicurazioni Generali's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Assicurazioni Generali's current price.

Assicurazioni Generali Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Assicurazioni Generali pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Assicurazioni Generali shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Assicurazioni Generali pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Assicurazioni Generali SpA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Assicurazioni Generali Risk Indicators

The analysis of Assicurazioni Generali's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Assicurazioni Generali's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting assicurazioni pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Assicurazioni Generali to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Assicurazioni Generali information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Assicurazioni Generali's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

Complementary Tools for Assicurazioni Pink Sheet analysis

When running Assicurazioni Generali's price analysis, check to measure Assicurazioni Generali's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Assicurazioni Generali is operating at the current time. Most of Assicurazioni Generali's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Assicurazioni Generali's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Assicurazioni Generali's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Assicurazioni Generali to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Assicurazioni Generali's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Assicurazioni Generali is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Assicurazioni Generali's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.